Forex. Weather forecast for the week 26 to 30 September
Gold XAU / USD forecast for the week
On the last trading week of the metal in demand, this has not prevented that the black gold finished trading in the "red zone", and stock markets in "green".
This rasskorelyatsiya likely to be temporary, and the auction of the week, gold will show a recession. Quotes of gold supported reluctance US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the meeting on 21 September. Against this backdrop, the dollar index USDX fell to 0.72%, while gold has traditionally been supported by the dollar decline. The market has already played the FOMC meeting and will now return to the old regime. Since saved "risk appetite" of the world, the investors will build up long positions and the shares of correction and open short positions in gold, which is traded at high levels.
Gold advice for investors : In a new week for metal traders should sell gold Sell on the growth of quotations to 1345/1355 and fiksirova be profit mark in 1323.
Brent Oil Forecast for the week investors
International Energy Forum, the main event for oil investors in the new week, a forum will be held in Algiers from 26 to 28 September. A month before this event, the world's oil producers are actively encouraged each other to sit down at the negotiating table and work out a set of measures aimed at stabilizing the market. Freezing level of oil production may become one iztakh measures. Russia and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement on cooperation. Now consider the possible scenarios of this summit. The first scenario - the decision to freeze the level of production by OPEC countries and other major players. Is this uptrend help? Probably not, as the level of production in Russia and Saudi Arabia now at historical highs, as demand has not kept pace with this trend. Swag freeze, and what to do with the surplus, which is the world-wide about 2.5 million. Barrels per day? The second scenario - no decisions on freezing and restriction adopted will not, but the parties will declare the possible measures, if necessary. This scenario is most likely. We must not forget that, in April, held a similar meeting in Doha and then quotes Brent at 43 $ / barrel, players are not able to agree. Why do it now, when the price of the barrel more expensive by 8%? On Friday, September 23 representatives of the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia stated that considering a summit in Algeria as an opportunity for consultation and do not expect serious decisions.
Rekmoendatsii Oil on weekly oil investors in the new week is to sell raw materials Sell the growth of quotations in the area of 46.90 / 47.50 and take profit around 45.10.
S & P500 Index forecast for the week
Bank of America Merrill Lynch in the last trading week has reported that in the United States over the past three months recorded a maximum outflows from funds investing in shares. Noting that a similar trend is happening in the stock markets in Europe and emerging markets. What is it: the beginning of massive sales or correction? Rather, the second and the script for two reasons.
The first reason, in the same report, Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed to the inflow of funds investing in the Japanese stock market. If global closing begins operations on risky assets, such a process occurs in all continents. The Japanese market, the world's second after the United States, and here the negative sentiment should also be observed. But they are not.
The second reason, when equity markets decline, "risk appetite", then immediately begin to fear the growth indices. For the US, it is the S & P 500 VIX, Japan is the Nikkei Volatility. Although, in the past week, both indices showed a decline of 20% and 18.3%, which indicates the absence of strong fears among investors.
S & P500 index recommendations for a week : Investors on the index at the auctions of the week it is worth buying the Buy S & P500 to reduce quotations to 2155/2136 and take profits around 2180.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
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