Forex forecast for today 16.09.2016: EUR / USD - Flete
Forex. Weather forecast on September 16, 2016
Events to which you should pay attention today:
15.30 MSK. US: Consumer Price Index for August (the previous value of 0.0% m / m forecast 0.1% m / m).
Forex forecast pair EUR USD EUR / USD today 16/09/2016
At present, formed a mixed background. On the one hand, it is possible to open Buy position on the background of negative macroeconomic statistics from the US.
Industrial production in the US in August fell by 0.4% m / m. The deficit of the US balance of payments current account in the second quarter increased by 7.1% y / y to the level of 119.9. The last seven consecutive quarters of negative balance is above the level of 100 billion. Dollars. Last time such a situation is observed in the period 2011-2012, which ultimately led to a gradual devaluation of the US currency over the next year and a half. Repeated the story this time? In my opinion, and it will take place after the presidential elections already in 2017. On the other hand, the growth of "risk appetite" will put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. On the eve of European and American stock markets trading ended in the "green zone", high-yield cross-rates also showed growth of quotations. Investors are increasing positions in carry trade, which is usually a bad effect on the value of the euro.
Euro Dollar recommendations to investors : Today EUR / USD, traders waiting flat is within a range of 1.1210 -1.1290.
Forex forecast pair pound dollar GBP / USD today 09/16/2016
Traders buy British currency, as formed a favorable background. First, the macroeconomic data from the United States on the eve of went worse than expected, can not be expected to raise the key rate the Fed next week. The bond market reacted to this event quite naturally: the yield on 10-year bonds the UK has been increasing relative to their counterparts from the United States. Secondly, the report on retail sales pleased investors positive data in the United Kingdom: sales increased by 6.2% y / y, while the market expected level of 5.4% y / y. The growth in consumer spending will increase GDP. Third, the Bank of England said on the eve of the positive effects of monetary easing in August, as well as the fall of the British currency. Conversations on interest rate cut was not, which is also positive for the pound. Fourth, to stabilize the commodity market also deprives bears a strong support. On Thursday the price of basic commodities assets showed strong growth, which in turn will put pressure on the dollar, since the raw material is quoted in the US currency.
Pound Dollar advice for investors today is to buy the pair GBP / USD Buy on the reduction of quotations to 1.3220 / 1.3180 and take profit at the level of 1.3300.
Forex forecast pair USD JPY USD / JPY today 09/16/2016
Current levels are attractive to open Buy position for two reasons. First, published on the eve of macroeconomic statistics in the US indicates that today we do not see the strong inflation data for August, which in turn puts a bullet in the issue of raising the Fed's interest rates at the meeting on 21 September. The producer price index, which shows early signs of inflationary trends, up to August was at zero in annual terms, while retail sales in the last summer month decreased by 0.3% m / m. Since the expectations of changes in monetary policy of FED are leveled, then the stock markets get a positive portion and therefore, we can expect recovery of quotations on the world's leading stock markets. The increase in risk appetite will be a positive impact on the pair USD / JPY. Second, the credit market spread widening observed yield on 10-year US and Japanese government bonds, which increases the attractiveness of investing in US assets. Investors expect rate cuts from the Bank of Japan meeting on 21 September, which does not allow the yen to strengthen too much to his rival.
Dollar Yen advice for investors : Today, the players on the dollar against the yen is worth buying a pair Buy's reduction of quotations to 102.10 / 101.70 and take profit at the level of 102.70.
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
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