Forex Weather for September 30, 2016
The main event for investors today:
02.30 MSK. Japan. The consumer price index in August (the previous value of -0.4% y / y; the forecast of -0.5% y / y)
11.30 MSK. United Kingdom: The balance of the current account balance of payments (the previous value -32.6B; 30.5B forecast).
12.00 MSK. Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for September (the previous value of 0.2% y / y; the forecast of 0.4% y / y).
15.30 MSK. US: The main index of the cost of private consumption in August (the previous value of 0.1% m / m forecast 0.2% m / m).
Forex. Currency, the euro dollar forecast EUR / USD for 30/09/2016
Investors on the currency pair EUR / USD on a background of multi-directional news background today is to provide growth of EUR / USD.
Today, the Eurozone is likely please market participants positive report on inflation for September. Yesterday, Germany got a preliminary assessment on the CPI. The index rose so high since May 2015, to 0.7% y / y, and today probably should not count on the yield of good data on the pan-European index. This is not surprising, as the increased consumer spending and lending to the private sector. Thus ultrasoft monetary policy of the ECB carries fruits. And in the United States today, will likely moderate the negative report on personal consumption expenditures. In August, it was registered a decline in sales volume of automobiles, real estate, as well as decreased turnover in retail trade. In this regard, I expect the output indicator Core PCE worse than expected median, which would put pressure on the dollar. The debt market is optimistic for the euro: the yield spread of German and US 10-year government bonds increases, which is a positive factor for the euro.
Euro Dollar recommendations : euro Investors d ollar today worth buying EUR / USD Buy on the reduction of quotations to 1.1200 / 1.1170 and take profit at the level of 1.1240.
Forex. The currency pair Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 30/09/2016
Today, the pair GBP / USD, investors should wait for a test 1.3056 level, for two reasons.
The reason for the first three days in the credit markets the yield of British 10-year government bonds is increasing in relation to the American and German, it increases the attractiveness of investments in the assets of Albion, than support the British currency.
The second reason , a report on the balance of payments for the 2nd quarter in the UK is also likely to appreciate forex traders. The final figure may be released better than expected against the background of the median reduction of the negative trade balance, and increase the volume of international reserves. The dynamics of the black gold market, we should not ignore: after OPEC's decision to limit the production volume in November increased demand for oil, is a positive factor for the pair GBP / USD.
GBP / USD recommendation : Investor pound with greenbacks worth buying today a pair GBP / USD quotes at reducing the Buy to 1.2950 / 1.2905 and take profit at the level of 1.2995.
Forex. Currency pair yen dollar forecast USD / JPY today 30/09/2016
At present, formed a mixed background. On the one hand, the Asian trading session is to wait for the inflation data slightly better than expected against the background of the median wage growth in Japan. Japanese corporations, despite the decline in corporate profits last three quarters are gradually beginning to improve working conditions, which caused consumer confidence index growth in August, up to a maximum in the last six months. Against this backdrop, the yen may strengthen to greenbacks to 100,70 / 100,50, where the market probably will come long-term investors and will increase long positions. Why not wait for the arrival of the bulls in the market? Long-term investors will buy the pair, based on future changes in monetary policy the Fed and the Bank of Japan. The first regulator will raise interest rates this year, the benefit of allowing core inflation. The second controller on the other hand, will pursue measures to stimulate the economy as inflation expectations remain very low.
USD / JPY recommendations : Investors should not expect the flat today for the pair USD / JPY in the range of 100.60 -101.60
Aleksandr Goryachev
Analyst « FreshForex »
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