Trading opportunities for the currency pair : the technical picture and cycles show a decline in the currency pair AUD / USD. Large speculators out of long positions. According to the forecast on a weekly TF forward the formation of M - shaped pattern with the targets 0.7415 and 0.7058. On the depreciation scenario will be canceled after the breakdown level of 0.7760.
prehistory
The latest idea for the Australian dollar came out August 15th. At the time of its publication the Australian quoted at 0.7647 to the American. Price strayed from the trend line and resistance resulting from the highs 0.8163 and 0.7835. According pinbaru offered to sell the Australian dollar through SellStop order - 0.7595 with a stop at 0.7761 and TA1 - at 0.7380, TP2 - 0.7056. Course AUD / USD dropped to 0.7442. Prior to the first target price is not reached 62 points.
Current situation
In the last report COT (Commitments of Traders) for September 13, which published the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), large speculators (Non-commercial) reduced long positions in Australian and increased short. Long positions fell by 4,490 contracts, up to 62.088 thousand. Contracts. Short positions rose by 394 contracts to 26,898 contracts. The net long position fell to 4.884 thousand., To 35.19 thousand. Contracts.
Small speculators decided to go into the cache. They reduced their long positions to 4,811 thousand, short -. To 2.416 thousand contracts.. The net long position fell by 2,456 contracts to 1,843 contracts.
In hedgers (Commercial) observed a mirror picture, as they work against the main motion. They have long positions increased by 8.449 thousand to 24.434 thousand contracts, short -.. To 1,109 thousand to 61.467 thousand contracts.. Open interest increased by 3,278 thousand. Contracts to 131.947 thousand.
Weekly indicators are pointing downwards. The price is close to the trend line. The solid black line I showed that I expect to see from the pair AUD / USD in cycles and it may go with the price rebound from 0.7415 and a break of the resistance zone 0,7759-0,7835.
On Friday, the index of consumer prices in the US came out better than expected and led to an increase in the dollar. The dollar index reached the highest level in more than two weeks.
This week all the attention of traders will be focused on the results of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve meeting. According to the latest CME Group's FedWatch, the likelihood of increasing US interest rates rose from 47% to 54.9% in December.
According to the forecast forward to the formation of M - shaped pattern with the targets 0.7415 (raised to 0.7380) and 0.7058. If, after the FOMC meeting and speeches Dzh.Yellen dollar will fall in price, the increase upside risks. Australian Dollar Sales need to stop seeing after the breakdown level of 0.7760. There's an Australian channel can rise up to 0.8389. At 0.7835 we can probably even better to put a stop the coup. A short position is closed, a long open.
According to the materials of Alpari Author: Vladislav Antonov
