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The can end the conflict between the DPRK and the US?

10 august 2017 - Fx4News
The can end the conflict between the DPRK and the US?

Now, when the issue of war between the US and North Korea opened and literally depends on the small things, experts began to calculate the possible scenarios. 

Note that the forecast scenarios thoroughly - is difficult, since it is necessary to consider many options and factors, as well as how to behave like the other countries that will be drawn into the conflict.
 

 

 

It is clear that military action should be avoided, but it is not known what to expect from Kim Jong-un and North Korea, which is still shrouded in mystery for the world community. It is really that nuclear weapons could be used, and if that happens, suffer not only the people but also the economy. 

I want to emphasize that, if at the moment conversations go on strike on the base on the island of Guam, but should bear in mind that in addition to this, the island is two more bases, and the number of people exceeds 7 thousand. This point, many estimate as a starting point for an attack on North Korea. That is, in order to protect themselves DPRK need to be proactive and the first strike in the States. 

But, again, is another question whether North Korea has "pull" war? On the one hand, and, as this militarized nation with a population of about 25 million people, of which almost 6.5 million soldiers, of which 5.5 in reserve and nearly 1 million active. The country has a large number of military equipment - tanks, airplanes, helicopters. In addition, there are navy with warships, patrol boats, submarines. 


And on the other, for the maintenance of all the equipment you need in excess of 14 thousand barrels of fuel a day, and the country produces 100 barrels a day, the rest have to buy. Of course, the country has reserves of fuel, but if you start fighting, they are quickly used up and deliver it unlikely that anyone would want. That is, the army is dysfunctional in the absence of regular supplies. 

It is logical that the only possible answer is the use of US nuclear weapons. of which nearly 6.5 million soldiers, of which 5.5 in reserve and nearly 1 million active. The country has a large number of military equipment - tanks, airplanes, helicopters. In addition, there are navy with warships, patrol boats, submarines. And on the other, for the maintenance of all the equipment you need in excess of 14 thousand barrels of fuel a day, and the country produces 100 barrels a day, the rest have to buy. Of course, the country has reserves of fuel, but if you start fighting, they are quickly used up and deliver it unlikely that anyone would want. That is, the army is dysfunctional in the absence of regular supplies. It is logical that the only possible answer is the use of US nuclear weapons. of which nearly 6.5 million soldiers, of which 5.5 in reserve and nearly 1 million active. 

 

 

Can the United States point-to strike?

 

On the one hand, the US army would launch strikes dot, and thereby eliminate the missile and nuclear facilities, but should bear in mind that the settings quite a lot and they are scattered across different areas, including mining. 

And even if the military will be able to eliminate all nuclear weapons, it is very unlikely that the residents of Seoul and Tokyo will be unprotected and threatened possible attacks DPRK artillery. A response from North Korea will be, and will be powerful.


whether regime change in North Korea is possible?


Note that the United States often use the reception policy of regime change, but with the DPRK more difficult, as there is no opposition. Although there were very high rates for Kim Jong-un, that he both knows the values of Western culture, it will help the country to become more open, but that did not happen. 

With accuracy can say that the current government is not going to leave the board, so just make a change of the US government will not work. 

In addition, China is not favorable for the new regime, because it is fraught with the refugee crisis on the one hand, and American troops on its border with another. Therefore, it will maintain the current.

 

Is the US ready for military action in full scale?

 

All analysts and experts are considering a variety of factors, including the costs and follow-up results of military action believe that the war will not. 

Now an urgent need to negotiate a way to smooth out and the conflict that occurred. 

 

If the war will still be - the consequences for the economy

 

General Secretary of UNPO strongly concerned overdue conflict and insists on diplomatic solution. 

First of all conflict affected neighboring countries - South Korea, and no matter how strong will the conflict, of course nuclear is the most stringent. It is the capital of South Korea, Seoul will be the first aim of the North, because until it is literally 35 miles from the border, and the consequences are very strong. 

If we analyze the past experience of war on the economy, on the consequences of not rosy. The war in Syria has led to a 60% drop of GDP. The Korean War of GDP has fallen off by more than 80%. 

Military action is not only a negative impact on the GDP of South Korea, but also in the world. In addition, much it would hurt exports, since the state is the largest producer of liquid crystal displays in the world and the second largest semiconductor manufacturer. it is also a popular automaker. 

The US economy will also suffer, as will be necessary to finance the war, and after - to help victims recover. And additional costs will lead to an increase in the US federal debt. 

Thus, we need to hope for a peaceful solution to the conflict.

 

Based on materials WELTRADE

 

 

 

 

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