The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, continues its recovery. The current AUDUSD quote is 0.6719.
The RBA’s forecast regarding the prospects of the Australian dollar looks rather pessimistic. The upward reversal of AUD at the beginning of the year has not changed anything. The RBA believes that if the US Federal Reserve starts softening its credit and monetary policy no later than Q2 2024, it will create new market conditions entirely.
The RBA also mentions a geopolitical risk for half the globe: this year, political elections will be held in countries where 40% of the global population lives. They will start in Taiwan this Saturday and conclude with the US elections in November.
The Reserve Bank of Australia believes the relationships between the US and certain Asian countries might become complicated, inevitably affecting the currencies associated with risks.