AUDUSD declines ahead of key inflation data release

The AUDUSD rate is falling as strong US labour market data continues to support the US dollar. The current quote stands at 0.6577. Discover more in our analysis for 25 July 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Investors are awaiting monthly and quarterly inflation data from Australia
• The inflation data may impact expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy
• US jobless claims dropped by 4 thousand
• AUDUSD forecast for 25 July 2025: 0.6495

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate continues to decline for the second consecutive trading session after another failed attempt to break above the key resistance level at 0.6600. Since the beginning of the month, bulls have tested this level three times unsuccessfully, encountering strong selling pressure each time.

Investors adopted a wait-and-see attitude ahead of next week’s key inflation releases – both monthly and quarterly. These indicators could significantly shape expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's future monetary policy.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently emphasised that the regulator does not plan to begin cutting rates until there is compelling evidence of inflation returning steadily to the 2.5% target, reaffirming the bank's commitment to a cautious and gradual strategy.

Meanwhile, the US dollar gains additional support from strong macroeconomic data: initial jobless claims in the US declined by 4 thousand last week, reaching 217 thousand, the lowest since mid-April, while analysts had forecast an increase to 227 thousand. This marks the sixth consecutive weekly decline in claims, strengthening expectations for resilience in the US labour market.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD pair is trading within an Expanding Triangle pattern, and prices failed to consolidate above the upper boundary of this formation, indicating that bearish pressure persists. The AUDUSD forecast for today suggests a further decline towards the 0.6495 area.

Stochastic Oscillator analysis confirms this trend: signal lines have turned downwards and are exiting the overbought area, which increases the probability of further declines.

A price consolidation below the 0.6545 level would be an additional signal for the development of a downward impulse.

Summary

The drop in US jobless claims strengthens expectations of economic resilience and supports the USD, which may limit the growth of the AUDUSD pair. Next week, traders will focus on the upcoming Fed meeting. AUDUSD technical analysis suggests a continued bearish scenario, where a breakout below 0.6545 may push the pair lower towards 0.6495.