AUDUSD forecast: the Australian dollar continues to lose ground against the USD

The US dollar continues to strengthen amid US economic data, with the AUDUSD rate able to decline to 0.6170 in the near term. Discover more in our analysis for 28 February 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The Chicago PMI: previously at 39.5, projected at 40.5
• The US core PCE price index for January: previously at 2.8%, projected at 2.6%
• AUDUSD forecast for 28 February 2025: 0.6170 and 0.6250

Fundamental analysis

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator measuring the activity in the region’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. It is calculated based on surveys of purchasing managers, who assess new orders, production, employment, inventories, and delivery times. A reading above 50.0 indicates economic growth, while a reading below 50.0 points to a downturn. The index is considered a leading indicator and impacts the US economic outlook.

Fundamental analysis for 28 February 2025 takes into account that the index is projected to rise to 40.5 points. Given that the reading remains below 50.0, this can be considered a positive development for the Australian dollar.

The US core PCE price index is a key inflation gauge monitored by the Federal Reserve. It tracks changes in the prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy items. The data reflects how consumer spending and inflationary pressures are evolving. High readings may signal the need for tighter monetary policy, while low ones may indicate easing inflation.

The forecast for 28 February 2025 takes into account that the index could fall to 2.6%. While the change is not critical, the actual reading could affect the AUDUSD rate.

AUDUSD technical analysis

Having tested the upper Bollinger band, the AUDUSD price has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern on the H4 chart. At this stage, it continues to maintain its downward trajectory following the signal received. Since the quotes remain within the ascending channel, the price could decline to the nearest support level at 0.6170. A rebound from this level may open the potential for a more substantial upward wave.

However, the AUDUSD rate could correct towards the 0.6250 resistance level before a decline.

Summary

The Australian dollar continues to fall; the AUDUSD technical analysis suggests a further decline to the 0.6170 support level.