AUDUSD halted its decline: even sellers take a break

The AUDUSD pair has paused around 0.6434. The Australian dollar could tumble at any moment. Find out more in our analysis for 5 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair halted its decline
• The market capitalised on trade surplus statistics to pause AUD sales
• AUDUSD forecast for 5 December 2024: 0.6480

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6434 before stabilising.

The latest data revealed that Australia recorded its largest trade surplus in eight months this October, thanks to a recovery in exports.

However, the AUD remains near a four-month low against the US dollar as the market continues to factor in weak GDP data and anticipates an imminent easing of monetary policy by the RBA.

On Wednesday, the AUDUSD pair declined by almost 1%.

The AUDUSD forecast appears bleak, with sellers likely to return to the market at any moment.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD H4 chart shows that the market is forming a consolidation range around 0.6424, temporarily extending it to 0.6400. The range may extend upwards to 0.6480 today, 5 December 2024. Once the price reaches this level, it may initiate a downward wave towards 0.6440. A broader and more significant consolidation range is expected to form around 0.6440. A breakout above this range could open the potential for an upward movement towards 0.6555, but if the range breaks downwards, the trend will likely continue towards 0.6400.

The Elliott Wave structure and growth wave matrix, with a pivot point at 0.6440, technically support this scenario for the AUDUSD rate. The market has already reached the lower boundary of a price envelope at 0.6400. Today, a growth wave may begin, targeting the envelope’s central line at 0.6480. Subsequently, a consolidation range could develop around the central line. An upward breakout could propel the growth wave towards the envelope’s upper boundary at 0.6555.

Summary

The AUDUSD pair remains at a four-month low, displaying weakness. However, technical indicators for today’s AUDUSD forecast suggest that a potential continuation of the growth wave towards the 0.6480 level is still likely.