AUDUSD hit by risk aversion and AI-related concerns
The AUDUSD pair fell to 0.6470. The sell-off is not over, as sellers remain highly active. Discover more in our analysis for 7 November 2025.
AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: the AUDUSD pair suffers from market uncertainty and deteriorating risk appetite
- Current trend: overall sentiment remains negative, with selling likely to continue
- AUDUSD forecast for 7 November 2025: 0.6450 and 0.6420
Fundamental analysis
The AUDUSD rate dropped to 0.6470, marking a four-week low amid rising global risks and reduced investor demand for risk assets.
Pressure on the Australian dollar intensified due to a new wave of sell-offs in global tech stocks, driven by fears of overvaluation in the artificial intelligence sector and uncertainty surrounding US-China relations in high-tech industries.
As a traditional indicator of global risk appetite, due to Australia’s dependence on commodity exports, the AUD failed to benefit even from a weaker US dollar, despite signs of cooling in the US labour market.
Over the week, the AUD fell by roughly 1%, marking its first decline in a month. Additional pressure came from recent comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which maintained a hawkish tone in November despite market expectations for another rate cut.
Markets still see the possibility of one additional rate cut by May 2026. However, some investors believe the easing cycle has already ended, as the rate remains steady at 3.6%.
The AUDUSD outlook is negative.
AUDUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair maintains its downward momentum, hitting a new local low. After a brief rally in late October, the market turned downwards, with sellers remaining in control, and the price moving along the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands range, indicating sustained pressure.
Volatility remains elevated, while the middle Bollinger Band points downwards, confirming the bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, which may trigger a short-term rebound, although there are still no signs of a reversal.
The nearest support level lies at 0.6450. A breakout below this level would open the path towards 0.6420. Resistance levels are at 0.6510 and 0.6560. Until the price consolidates above the first of these levels, the likelihood of further decline remains high.
Summary
The AUDUSD pair remains under pressure and appears weak. The AUDUSD forecast for today, 7 November 2025, suggests a test of the 0.6450 level and a further decline towards 0.6420.