AUDUSD reaches new lows: market pressures mount on the Aussie

The AUDUSD pair is rapidly falling, with the market testing the 5 August low. Find out more in our analysis for 14 November 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair is plummeting
• The Aussie is under pressure from Australia’s employment statistics
• AUDUSD forecast for 14 November 2024: 0.6406

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6462.

This is the lowest level in three months. Investors reacted negatively to Australia’s mixed employment report.

The latest statistics showed that the unemployment rate in October remained unchanged for the third consecutive month, at 4.1%. As this is in line with expectations, it raises no concerns. However, employment increased by only 15,900 jobs, falling short of the projected rise of 25,000. The market views the insufficient creation of new jobs as a sign that companies are still struggling under high interest rates.

In addition to domestic factors, the Aussie is impacted by external movements. The market continues to reflect Trump-era trends and favours the US dollar.

The AUDUSD forecast appears negative.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD H4 chart shows that the market has completed a corrective wave, reaching 0.6545 and, after rebounding from this level, dropped to 0.6480. A narrow consolidation range is expected to develop at the current lows of a downward wave today, 14 November 2024. If there is an upward breakout, a correction towards 0.6545 is possible. In case of a breakout below the range, the downward wave could continue towards 0.6406, the local estimated target.

The Elliott Wave structure and downward wave matrix for the AUDUSD rate, with a pivot point at 0.6545, technically confirm this scenario. The market has completed a downward wave structure, reaching the lower boundary of a price envelope at 0.6480. A corrective wave could develop, aiming for its central line at 0.6545. Subsequently, a downward wave might follow, targeting the envelope’s lower boundary at 0.6406.

Summary

The AUDUSD pair appears weak and has reached three-month lows. Technical indicators for today’s AUDUSD forecast suggest that the downward wave could extend to 0.6406.