AUDUSD reversed downwards: 90% of traders expect an RBA rate cut

The AUDUSD rate is declining after four consecutive days of growth amid expectations of an RBA rate cut. Current quote – 0.6540. Details – in our analysis for 27 June 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Pressure on AUDUSD is linked to expectations of imminent monetary policy easing
• Expectations of an RBA rate cut by 25 basis points in July have strengthened
• AUDUSD forecast for 27 June 2025: 0.6480

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate turned down after four sessions of consecutive growth. Quotes reached the key resistance level at 0.6550, where pressure on the Australian dollar intensified.

The main factor in AUD weakness was the growing expectations of imminent monetary policy easing. Markets are pricing in a 90% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points as early as July. The US dollar is strengthening thanks to reduced market tensions, which shifted investors away from concerns over new trade tariffs and eased worries about a prolonged conflict.

Market participants continue to focus on upcoming data for the PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator – as well as Australian retail sales statistics for May, scheduled for release next week.

AUDUSD technical analysis

The AUDUSD rate is correcting after rebounding from the upper boundary of the Broadening Triangle pattern. The current price chart structure indicates the completion of the upward impulse and the formation of a bearish correction. The forecast for AUDUSD today suggests a decline targeting 0.6480. Analysis of the Stochastic Oscillator indicator shows overbought conditions and the beginning of a reversal downwards, confirming the correction scenario. An additional signal for stronger downside movement will be a breakout of the lower boundary of the internal upward channel with consolidation below 0.6515. Resistance to the decline is still provided by the 65-period Moving Average, but its breakout will accelerate the drop in quotes.

Summary

The AUDUSD rate came under pressure due to expectations of an RBA rate cut and US dollar strengthening amid easing geopolitical risks. Technical analysis of AUDUSD indicates the completion of the upward impulse and the formation of a correction with the potential to fall to the level of 0.6480.