AUDUSD volatility inevitable: USD under pressure ahead of NFP release

The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls release could weaken the USD and trigger a rally in the AUDUSD pair towards the 0.6465 mark. Discover more details in our analysis for 1 August 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Australia’s Q2 Producer Price Index (PPI): previously at – 0.9%, currently at 0.7%
• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 147 thousand, projected at 106 thousand
• AUDUSD forecast for 1 August 2025: 0.6465

Fundamental analysis

The US Nonfarm Payrolls figure for 1 August 2025 is forecast to decline to 106 thousand, down from 147 thousand in the previous period. If the actual result matches expectations, the market could see increased volatility and temporary weakness in the US dollar. The Nonfarm Payrolls release typically stirs strong reactions in financial markets, often supporting the USD, but also capable of undermining its position.

Given the current downward wave forming in the AUDUSD rate, today’s forecast leans in favour of the Australian dollar. Ahead of the NFP report, the US dollar might lose ground, and the AUDUSD pair may initiate a growth wave.

The PPI acts as an inflation gauge, tracking the average price change for goods and services of domestic producers. It records prices from the sellers' perspective across three sectors: manufacturing, raw materials, and processing. As producer costs rise, they often pass them on to consumers, making the PPI a leading inflation indicator.

The forecast for 1 August 2025 takes into account that the US PPI data slightly declined from the previous period to 0.7%.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair tested the lower Bollinger Band and formed a Hammer reversal pattern. At this stage, the pair may develop a corrective wave in response to the pattern signal. The upside target could be the resistance level at 0.6465.

The AUDUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario. Given that the pair has been in a steady downtrend over the past few sessions, a continued decline towards the nearest support level at 0.6410 remains possible.

Summary

A decrease in US employment figures could weaken the USD. AUDUSD technical analysis suggests the pair could develop a corrective wave towards the 0.6465 resistance level.