The primary currency pair is gaining on Friday. The current exchange rate for EURUSD is 1.0817.
The US dollar stabilised by today, but it noticeably weakened the evening before. This development was attributed to the publication of the second estimate of the US GDP for Q1 2024. The data do not rule out the possibility of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
The statistics showed that GDP increased by only 1.3% y/y in January-March, while the first estimate reflected a 1.6% rise. This deterioration in the data has opened the door for the Fed to consider at least one rate cut by the end of the year. The market's current assessment of the likelihood of monetary policy easing at the September meeting stands at 55%, compared to 51% a day earlier.
Today, the market focuses on the Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation component. By this evening, the market will have more data on which to base speculations about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.