Euro attacks the dollar: decisive day for EURUSD
The euro continues to strengthen on the back of economic data from both the US and the euro area, with EURUSD testing the 1.1760 level. Details in our analysis for 1 October 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September: previous value – 2.0%, forecast – 2.2%
- U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: previous value – 54K, forecast – 52K
- EURUSD forecast for 1 October 2025: 1.1815
Fundamental analysis
The forecast for October 1, 2025, looks unfavorable for the USD. Against the backdrop of U.S. and eurozone economic indicators, the EURUSD pair is forming a wave of growth.
The eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping to assess purchasing trends and potential stagnation in the economy. If the figure comes in above expectations, it will have a positive impact on the euro.
The EURUSD forecast for October 1, 2025, suggests that the index may rise to 2.2%, compared to the previous value of 2.0%. The forecasted figure does not differ much from the previous one, but if the actual value exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the euro further.
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is forecast to decline to 52K. However, the actual figure may deviate from expectations. In the previous reporting period, the indicator dropped significantly, and the current release may not be an exception. If the actual number comes in worse than forecast, it would add negative pressure on the U.S. dollar.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, EURUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair continues its upward wave as part of the pattern’s follow-through. Given that quotes remain within the ascending channel, there is potential for further growth toward the nearest resistance level at 1.1815. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation of the bullish trend.
At the same time, a correction of EURUSD toward 1.1725 before growth should not be ruled out.
Summary
The weakening of U.S. economic indicators continues to pressure the USD. Technical analysis of EURUSD suggests the continuation of the bullish wave, with the first target resistance level at 1.1815.