Euro retreats, but the uptrend in EURUSD remains intact

The EURUSD rate has declined for the second consecutive trading session, pulling back after rebounding from the key resistance level at 1.1580. Discover more in our analysis for 16 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Geopolitical tension between Israel and Iran supports the US dollar
• Markets reduce expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose in June
• EURUSD forecast for 16 June 2025: 1.1710

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is edging down for the second session after rebounding from the 1.1580 resistance level. The US dollar gained support amid rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.

Iran’s threat to block one of the world’s key oil transit routes raised investor concerns over energy supply disruptions. As a result, expectations for a near-term easing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have diminished. Despite Donald Trump’s calls for a full 1 percentage point rate cut, the escalating conflict lowers the likelihood of such a move in the short term.

The US dollar was further supported by strong US consumer confidence data. The University of Michigan’s survey showed the index climbed to 60.5 in June from 52.2 in May, well above the forecasted 53.5.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction within a descending channel. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a brief decline towards the support level, after which the pair could resume its upward movement targeting 1.1710. This scenario aligns with the rebound from the Stochastic Oscillator’s support line, where the signal lines have crossed, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A breakout above the upper boundary of the corrective channel and consolidation above 1.1585 would confirm growth.

Summary

The US dollar strengthened on geopolitical tensions and robust macroeconomic data, putting pressure on the EURUSD rate. However, EURUSD technical analysis suggests a high probability of a renewed upward move following a short-term correction, provided the price breaks above the key resistance at 1.1585.