The EURUSD rate corrected towards the 1.1730 area following the ECB's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The market awaits the outcome of trade agreement negotiations between the US and the EU. Find out more in our analysis for 25 July 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: the ECB left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.15%
- Current trend: correcting downwards
- EURUSD forecast for 25 July 2025: 1.1700 or 1.1830
Fundamental analysis
At yesterday’s meeting, the European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged after eight cuts in the current cycle. The regulator noted that disinflation has progressed in line with expectations since the previous meeting in June.
ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that a more detailed assessment of the need for further rate cuts this year will require more economic data and clarity on the conditions of a potential trade agreement with the US.
Meanwhile, reports suggest that the US may agree to reduce tariffs on EU goods to 15% (the lower limit for duties on other countries) as part of an ongoing trade agreement actively being negotiated by EU diplomats.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, EURUSD is undergoing a downward correction, falling this morning to the 1.1730 area, with further decline towards the 1.1700 support level possible. The daily trend for the pair remains upward, so after the correction ends, the rally may continue.
The short-term EURUSD forecast suggests a further decline towards 1.1700 in the near term if bears keep the price below 1.1760. However, if bulls push the pair above 1.1760, growth may resume towards the 1.1830 resistance level.
Summary
The EURUSD pair corrected to the 1.1730 area following the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged. The market’s focus now turns to trade negotiations between the US and the EU.
