The EURUSD pair is undergoing a moderate correction, falling towards 1.1650 after stronger-than-expected inflation data in the eurozone. Discover more in our analysis for 20 October 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: consumer price inflation in the eurozone reached 2.2% year-over-year in September 2025
- Current trend: moderate correction
- EURUSD forecast for 20 October 2025: 1.1700 or 1.1600
Fundamental analysis
According to Friday’s data, consumer price inflation in the eurozone reached 2.2% year-over-year in September 2025, up from 2.0% in the previous three months and slightly above the ECB’s 2.0% target. Service price inflation increased slightly to 3.2% from 3.1% in August, while energy prices fell by only 0.4%, compared to a 2.0% decline previously.
In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu narrowly survived two consecutive no-confidence votes on Thursday. He pledged to suspend the controversial pension reform, preventing another government collapse and giving President Emmanuel Macron a brief respite before the tougher budget battles ahead.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair is showing a moderate correction, consolidating below the 1.1700 mark. The daily momentum remains upward, suggesting that after a short-term pullback, the euro may resume its rise.
The short-term EURUSD forecast suggests a recovery towards 1.1700 if bulls keep the price above 1.1650. However, if bears push the pair below 1.1650, the price may drop towards the 1.1600 support level.
Summary
The EURUSD pair is in a correction phase, slipping below 1.1700. Market participants are closely watching the evolving political situation in France.
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