The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.1677 on Friday. Investors have become more optimistic regarding the Fed’s rate outlook. Discover more in our analysis for 26 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The EURUSD pair ends the week with a noticeable decline
- The overall Federal Reserve rate outlook has turned more optimistic
- EURUSD forecast for 26 September 2025: 1.1644
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD pair dropped to 1.1677 at the end of the week.
Investors are awaiting the release of the PCE price index, the Fed’s key inflation gauge, which should provide new guidance on future policy.
On Thursday, data showed a decrease in initial jobless claims by 14 thousand to 218 thousand, significantly better than forecasts. The statistics indicate companies’ reluctance to lay off staff. Revised GDP figures also confirmed 3.8% annualized growth in Q2, marking the fastest pace in nearly two years, supported by strong consumer spending.
Markets still expect a Federal Reserve rate cut of a quarter point in October, but the overall forecast for easing this year has been trimmed to 39 basis points from 43 earlier in the week.
The EURUSD forecast is negative.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair had been rising since early September and reached a peak near 1.1919 on 17 September. After that, a correction began: prices gradually declined, and by 26 September, they had fallen to the 1.1645 support level, setting a new monthly low.
Currently, the pair is consolidating near this zone. Indicators point to the dominance of a downtrend: MACD remains in negative territory, and Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards. At the same time, the Stochastic signals oversold conditions, leaving room for a short-term technical rebound.
The overall sentiment remains bearish. To recover, the EURUSD pair needs to consolidate above 1.1750; for now, the risks of further downside remain.
Summary
The EURUSD pair remains at risk of further decline. The EURUSD forecast for today, 26 September 2025, suggests a retest of the 1.1644 level.
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