The EURUSD rate is correcting after its recent rise, falling towards the 1.1600 mark. Today, the market focus is on US inflation statistics – the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Find out more in our analysis for 12 August 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: today, the market awaits the US CPI data
- Current trend: correcting after growth
- EURUSD forecast for 12 August 2025: 1.1700 or 1.1500
Fundamental analysis
The euro has recently been feeling relatively confident, as the ECB concluded its current monetary policy easing cycle in July after eight rate cuts over the past year. This brought borrowing costs down to their lowest level since November 2022.
Today, during the American session, US consumer inflation data for July will be published. The CPI is expected to increase by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could support the US dollar.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair shows a local upward reversal from the 1.1400 support level, after which the pair rose to the 1.1700 area. The market is now undergoing a local downward correction, which will likely be followed by further growth.
The short-term EURUSD price forecast suggests growth towards 1.1788 in the near term if bulls push the price above 1.1700. Conversely, if bears gain a foothold below 1.1600, the pair could dip to the support area near 1.1500.
Summary
The EURUSD pair is undergoing a moderate correction, having fallen towards 1.1600. Today, the market focus is on the US inflation data for July.
