EURUSD maintains bullish momentum amid political uncertainty in the US
The EURUSD rate continues to strengthen amid US dollar weakness and expectations of further Federal Reserve policy easing, currently standing at 1.1659. Find out more in our analysis for 16 October 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The US government shutdown continues into its third week, delaying the release of key macroeconomic data
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted signs of labour market weakness, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut this month
- Markets anticipate another cut in December and three more next year
- EURUSD forecast for 16 October 2025: 1.1740
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate is rising for the third consecutive session, showing a steady recovery after a prolonged correction. Buyers defended the 1.1550 level, increasing the likelihood that the downtrend has ended and a bullish impulse is underway. The US dollar remains under pressure from ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, the prolonged government shutdown, and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
The shutdown, now entering its third week, has delayed the publication of crucial economic reports that could influence policy decisions. In his latest remarks, Jerome Powell highlighted signs of labour market weakness, strengthening investor expectations for a rate cut this month, followed by another in December and three additional cuts in 2026.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD rate is strengthening, forming a confident upward movement after breaking out of its descending channel. Buyers have broken above the 1.1635 resistance level, confirming the completion of a Double Bottom reversal pattern. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a short-term pullback towards the broken support level, followed by renewed growth towards 1.1740.
The Stochastic Oscillator supports this scenario, maintaining an upward trajectory and hovering above the support line, which signals strong bullish momentum. A consolidation above 1.1680 would increase the probability of further growth towards upper targets.
Summary
The fundamental backdrop for the EURUSD pair continues to favour the euro amid persistent pressure on the US dollar. Technical analysis confirms a sustained bullish momentum, with potential for further growth towards 1.1740 after a brief correction.