EURUSD remains in a consolidation phase, with crucial news ahead

The EURUSD pair is stable around the 1.0502 level. The market is conserving strength ahead of US statistics. More details in our analysis for 4 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair remains in a consolidation phase
• Market participants are awaiting November US employment reports
• EURUSD forecast for 4 December 2024: 1.0628

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0502 in the middle of the week.

The primary currency pair has seen only modest movements in recent days. Political turmoil in France has already been priced in, but the market still seeks safe-haven assets, keeping the euro relatively low.

The release of US labour market data supported the US dollar. The number of job vacancies in the US increased moderately in October while layoffs decreased, which is a positive sign for the sector as a whole.

The market’s focus now shifts to the ADP private sector employment change data due on Wednesday and a large batch of employment statistics on Friday.

The EURUSD forecast remains moderate.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has completed a downward wave, reaching 1.0460. A growth structure towards 1.0550 could develop today, 4 December 2024. Subsequently, the price may decline to 1.0500. The market continues to consolidate around this level without a clear trend. A breakout below this range could extend the downward wave to 1.0333, while an upward breakout would open the potential for a growth wave towards the local target of 1.0628.

The Elliott Wave structure and downward wave matrix, with a pivot point at 1.0500, technically support this scenario. This level is considered crucial for the EURUSD rate. Another growth wave is expected to form, targeting the central line of a price envelope at 1.0628. Once this level is reached, a downward wave is expected to develop, aiming for the envelope’s lower boundary at 1.0525. Subsequently, the trend could continue towards its upper boundary at 1.0715.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is on hold until the latest US labour market statistics are released. Technical indicators for today’s EURUSD forecast suggest a potential growth wave towards the 1.0628 level.