EURUSD rises as market bets on Fed rate cut

The EURUSD pair strengthened to 1.1682. Statistics and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence weigh on the USD. Find out more in our analysis for 13 August 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair is moving upwards while signals for the US dollar remain weak
• Investors expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September
• EURUSD forecast for 13 August 2025: 1.1697

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate rose to 1.1682 in the middle of the week. Fresh US inflation data strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut next month.

July consumer inflation remained flat at 2.7%, below the forecast of a rise to 2.8% due to tariffs, while the core figure climbed to 3.1%, the highest in six months.

Fed funds futures now price in a 94% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. The market does not rule out another similar move before the end of the year.

Additional pressure on the US dollar came after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that President Donald Trump is considering suing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over his actions during the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. This sparked concerns about the Fed’s independence.

The EURUSD forecast is positive.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair remains in an upward phase and is hovering within the 1.1620-1.1690 range after recovering from late-July lows near 1.1500. The nearest resistance level stands at 1.1697, and a breakout above it would open the way towards 1.1789. Support levels are at 1.1588 and 1.1526.

The price is near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating elevated volatility and overbought conditions. The Stochastic above 80 confirms the risk of a short-term correction. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, with its lines pointing upwards, indicating sustained bullish momentum.

Summary

The EURUSD pair continues to rise, holding within an upward trading channel. The EURUSD forecast for today, 13 August 2025, suggests an extension of the buying wave towards 1.1697.