EURUSD strengthens amid weak US economic data

The EURUSD rate is approaching the key resistance level at 1.0525. Discover more in our analysis for 17 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US retail sales fell by 0.9% in January
• Weak statistics fuelled speculation about a possible Federal Reserve interest rate cut
• EURUSD forecast for 17 February 2025: 1.0525 and 1.0600

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising for the sixth consecutive trading session, supported by US President Donald Trump’s delay in introducing retaliatory tariffs and weak US economic data.

Friday’s data showed that US retail sales fell by 0.9% in January, down from a revised 0.7% gain in December, while analysts had expected a contraction of only 0.1%.

Weak statistics fuelled market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which could drive the currency pair further up as part of today’s EURUSD forecast.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is moving within the ascending channel. The price is holding above the EMA-65 after sellers failed to break below this line, confirming the growing bullish sentiment.

Buyers have reached a crucial resistance level, with the Stochastic Oscillator values in the overbought area. These signals increase the likelihood of a corrective decline to 1.0445. However, given the current uptrend, the bearish correction will be short-lived.

The EURUSD forecast for today suggests a rebound from 1.0445, followed by growth to 1.0605. The bullish scenario will be confirmed if the price firmly secures above 1.0525. An alternative scenario is possible if the price breaks below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and consolidates below 1.0420, adding to the pressure from sellers and opening the way to 1.0380.

Summary

Weak US economic data and expectations of the Federal Reserve policy easing support the euro. The EURUSD technical analysis confirms the uptrend, with the key resistance level at 1.0525. A breakout above this level will open the way to 1.0600. However, an alternative scenario is possible if the price consolidates below 1.0420.