EURUSD strengthens in response to revised US labour market data

The EURUSD pair continues its upward attempt as weak US macroeconomic data weighs on the US dollar. The price currently stands at 1.1574. Discover more in our analysis for 4 August 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• In July, the US economy added just 73 thousand jobs
• The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 48 points, staying below 50 for the fifth consecutive month
• Markets now price in a near-certain Fed rate cut in September
• EURUSD forecast for 4 August 2025: 1.1415

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is slightly rising, remaining below the 1.1590 resistance level. The US dollar continues to lose ground amid disappointing labour market data.

In July, the US economy added only 73 thousand jobs, far below the expected 110 thousand. The June figure was revised down to 14 thousand from 147 thousand, with May’s gain down to 19 thousand from 144 thousand, highlighting a worsening hiring trend.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48 from 49 points, contrary to forecasts for a rise to 49.5. The figure remains below the 50 threshold for the fifth consecutive month, signalling continued contraction in activity.

Markets now almost fully price in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Tensions escalated after President Donald Trump dismissed Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating employment data.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate maintains its upward momentum after breaking out of the consolidation range, signalling a revival in buying interest. However, the price remains below the key 1.1590 resistance level, which limits the short-term upside potential.

Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a drop towards 1.1375 as part of a Head and Shoulders pattern formation. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms the likelihood of a correction, with signal lines turning down from overbought territory, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

A breakout below the ascending channel’s lower boundary, along with consolidation below 1.1525, would confirm the bearish scenario.

Summary

The EURUSD pair continues to rise on the back of deteriorating US labour data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, EURUSD technical analysis suggests a high probability of a downward correction towards 1.1375 in line with a Head and Shoulders pattern.