EURUSD: the euro continues to strengthen

The release of the FOMC minutes may impact the current EURUSD forecast and propel the price to 1.0550. Find out more in our analysis for 19 February 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• US building permits: previously at 1.482 million, projected at 1.460 million
• The release of the FOMC minutes
• EURUSD forecast for 19 February 2025: 1.0420 and 1.0550

Fundamental analysis

Building permits reflect the seasonally adjusted number of permits issued for new construction projects. The indicator is based on the number of building requests received throughout the year, which forms the basis for the forecast for the next year, provided that the pace of permit issuance remains unchanged.

The building permit data is considered crucial for the entire housing market, reflecting the overall state of the economy and acting as a leading metric for one of the most crucial sectors. The forecast for 19 February 2025 suggests a decrease in issued building permits to 1.460 million. Although the decline is not critical, it could impact the EURUSD rate.

Fundamental analysis for today, 19 February 2025, takes into account that the release of the FOMC minutes could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The document is expected to provide hints on the timing of a potential interest rate cut despite easing inflation. At this stage, the inflation rate was 3.0% year-on-year in January, above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. For this reason, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about rate cuts, maintaining the short-term interest rate at 4.25-4.50% since December 2024. The EURUSD forecast for today takes into account that any signals of monetary easing may trigger a weakening of the US dollar, while hawkish statements could strengthen it.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD price formed a Doji reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. At this stage, it continues its upward trajectory following the signal received. Since the quotes remain within the ascending channel, they will likely rise to the nearest resistance level at 1.0550. A breakout above this level could open the door for the development of the uptrend.

However, the price could plunge to the 1.0420 support level and gain upward momentum after testing the support.

Summary

Along with the EURUSD technical analysis, the release of the FOMC minutes suggests potential growth to 1.0550 USD.