EURUSD: the euro falls along with the eurozone’s industrial production

The decline in the eurozone’s industrial production and the stagnation of GDP growth may further weaken the euro against the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 14 November 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Eurozone Q3 GDP (y/y): previously at 0.9%, projected at 0.9%
• Eurozone industrial production (m/m): previously at 1.8%, projected at - 1.3%
• US continuing jobless claims: previously at 1,892 thousand, projected at 1,880 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 14 November 2024: 1.0540 and 1.0505

Fundamental analysis

GDP reflects the total value of all goods and services produced in a country; considering only end products, excluding raw material costs.

Fundamental analysis for 14 November 2024 shows that eurozone GDP may remain around 0.9%, consistent with the previous period. GDP has demonstrated modest growth over the past few months, suggesting that stronger-than-forecast data could support the euro.

European industrial production reflects the eurozone’s total output, including utility services, industrial plants, and mines. The previous reading was 1.8%, and the forecast for 14 November 2024 suggests a decline to -1.3%. Industrial production in the eurozone continues to contract. Negative readings could be due to expensive energy tariffs, forcing companies to reduce production or even shut down, further adding negative pressure on the euro.

US continuing jobless claims reflect the number of recurring claims for unemployment benefits. Fundamental analysis for 14 November 2024 indicates that claims may decrease to 1,880 thousand. Compared to the previous period, the forecast appears favourable for the US dollar. The actual reading may differ from expectations, but if it exceeds the last figure, it will support the US dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has completed a minor correction towards 1.0652 and, rebounding from this level, has formed a downward wave, targeting 1.0555. A narrow consolidation range is expected to develop at the current lows today, 14 November 2024. If there is an upward breakout, a correction towards 1.0595 is possible. With a downward breakout, the wave could continue towards 1.0540, the local estimated target, and extend further to 1.0505. After reaching this level, a more substantial correction may begin, aiming for 1.0660.

The Elliott Wave structure and matrix of the third downward wave, with a pivot point at 1.0660, technically confirm this scenario. This level is crucial for the third downward wave in the EURUSD. A breakout below it has allowed the trend to continue towards 1.0505. After reaching this level, the price is expected to rise to the central line of a price envelope at 1.0660. The wave could then continue towards the envelope’s lower boundary at 1.0420.

Summary

Alongside technical analysis for today’s EURUSD forecast, the decline in the eurozone’s industrial production suggests that a downward wave could continue to the 1.0540 and 1.0505 levels.