Amid US fundamental data, the EURUSD rate may fall to 1.0300 after a correction. Find out more in our analysis for 7 February 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- US average hourly earnings in January: previously at 0.3%, projected at 0.3%
- US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 256 thousand, projected at 169 thousand
- US unemployment rate in January: previously at 4.1%, projected at 4.1%
- EURUSD forecast for 7 February 2025: 1.0430 and 1.0300
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis for 7 February 2025 takes into account that the US average hourly earnings are projected to remain at the same level in January. In this case, it will have almost no impact on the EURUSD rate.
According to the forecast for 7 February 2025, US Nonfarm Payrolls could decrease to 169 thousand from the previous 256 thousand. If actual data aligns with expectations, the market may see increased volatility, with the US dollar temporarily weakening. The Nonfarm Payrolls release nearly always causes excitement in financial markets and is equally capable of supporting the US dollar or depriving it of its positions.
Today’s EURUSD forecast also takes into account that the US unemployment rate may remain unchanged at 4.1% in January. The absence of changes compared to the previous period will be a neutral factor for the USD.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD price has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger band on the H4 chart. At this stage, it continues its downward momentum following the pattern received. Since the price remains within the descending channel, it could plunge to the nearest support at 1.0300. A breakout below this level could open the potential for the development of a downtrend.
However, the price could correct towards the 1.0430 resistance level and gain downward momentum after a pullback.
Summary
Coupled with technical analysis, expectations of low Nonfarm Payrolls suggest that the EURUSD pair could correct towards the 1.0430 resistance level before a decline.
