EURUSD: US GDP data may trigger a correction in the pair

ECB officials’ speeches, US initial jobless claims, and the GDP data release could heat today’s market. Find out more in our analysis dated 29 August 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• A speech by European Central Bank official Isabel Schnabel
• A speech by European Central Bank official Philip R. Lane
• The Eurogroup meeting
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 232,000, projected at 232,000
• Q2 US GDP: previously at 1.4%, projected at 2.8%
• EURUSD forecast for 29 August 2024: 1.1090 and 1.1150

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD analysis for 29 August 2024 shows that the market is awaiting a large set of economic data from the eurozone, including speeches by ECB officials, Schnabel and Lane, and the Eurogroup meeting. ECB officials’ speeches often indicate future monetary policy and economic expectations, and increased market volatility can be expected during them.

A set of data, including US initial jobless claims, will be released after the US trading session opens. A preliminary forecast suggests that the figure will remain flat at 232,000, which may support the US dollar’s strength against the euro.

GDP is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country. Only end products are considered, excluding the production of raw materials.

The forecast for 29 August 2024 suggests a 2.8% increase in US GDP, double the previous reading. If actual data aligns with expectations, the EURUSD rate could decline markedly.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD H4 chart shows that the market has breached the 1.1150 level and completed the second decline structure towards 1.1105. The price could rise to 1.1150 (testing from below) today, 29 August 2024. Subsequently, the third decline structure is expected to develop, aiming for at least 1.1090, the first target, practically resulting in a full-fledged first downward wave. After reaching the 1.1090 level, the price could correct towards 1.1150, the second target.

Summary

Potential US GDP growth, other fundamental data, and the EURUSD technical analysis in today’s EURUSD forecast suggest a potential decline to 1.1090, followed by a correction to 1.1150.