Financial thriller: gold (XAUUSD) gears up for a surge

Rising inflation expectations and a possible decline in the US core PCE price index may drive XAUUSD quotes towards the 3,365 USD mark. Discover more in our analysis for 30 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US core PCE price index: previously at 2.6%, projected at 2.5%
• University of Michigan US inflation expectations: previously at 6.5%, projected at 7.3%
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 30 May 2025: 3,365

Fundamental analysis

The core PCE price index is a key US inflation gauge that tracks changes in the prices of goods and services, excluding food and energy. It reflects how consumer spending evolves under stable price trends and is the main reference point for monetary policy decisions. The core PCE represents the population’s real purchasing power and overall economic stability, as it is less susceptible to short-term fluctuations.

The XAUUSD forecast for today, 30 May 2025, considers a projected drop in the index to 2.5%. While this forecast is not definitive, the actual release will clarify the picture. A lower-than-expected reading would likely pressure the US dollar, pushing XAUUSD prices higher.

The University of Michigan US inflation expectations report is due at the beginning of the US trading session. The previous value was 6.5%, and the forecast for 30 May 2025 suggests a rise to 7.3%, which could impact XAUUSD quotes.

The short-term XAUUSD price forecast points to a potential correction towards 3,260 USD. However, in the longer term, the outlook for XAUUSD remains bullish, with a year-end target of 3,900 USD.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. The pair is currently developing a corrective wave based on this signal. The uptrend will likely continue since prices remain within an ascending channel. At this stage, the upside target could be the 3,365 USD resistance level.

However, today’s technical analysis for XAUUSD considers an alternative scenario, with prices correcting towards 3,260 USD.

Summary

Amid downbeat US economic forecasts, XAUUSD quotes may resume their upward momentum towards 3,365 USD following a correction.