Ford Motor Company stock forecast: shares teeter on the edge of a cliff

On 5 February, Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) reported its Q4 2024 results, posting a 5% revenue increase and a profit of 1.8 billion USD compared to the previous year’s loss. However, the share price fell by 7.5% following the report’s release, as investors were discouraged by the 2025 outlook, which indicated a potential decline in profitability.

This article examines Ford Motor Company’s business and revenue streams, presents its quarterly reports, and conducts a fundamental analysis of the F-listed asset. It also includes expert forecasts for Ford’s stock for 2025 and analyses Ford’s stock performance, forming the basis for Ford Motor Company’s stock forecast for 2025.

About Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor Company was founded by Henry Ford in 1903 in the US. The company’s primary business activities involve designing, manufacturing, and marketing a wide range of vehicles, including passenger cars, trucks, SUVs, and commercial vehicles. Additionally, Ford is actively involved in the financial sector through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company, which offers car buyers leasing, lending, and other financial products.

The IPO occurred in 1956, making Ford the first automaker whose shares were traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the F ticker symbol. This opened up new opportunities for investors and facilitated the company’s continued growth and development.

Today, Ford continues to innovate in the automotive industry, focusing on electric vehicles and autonomous technologies while improving the environmental performance of its products in response to evolving market demands and existing trends.

Ford Motor Company’s main revenue streams

Ford divides its operations into key divisions and publishes financial results for each, except Ford Next, which has not yet generated income. Below are Ford’s main divisions and business areas:

• Ford Blue: traditional production of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) and hybrid vehicles. This represents the core of Ford’s business and includes the production and sale of classic models such as the Ford F-150, Ford Explorer, and Mustang
• Ford Pro: production of commercial vehicles and provision of related services. This division serves clients who use vehicles for business purposes
• Ford E: development and sale of electric vehicles (EVs) and innovative technologies. This department is responsible for models such as the Ford Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning and the development and promotion of new electric vehicle platforms
• Ford Next: developing new business models and innovative solutions beyond traditional automobile production. This unit is responsible for the research and development of autonomous driving technologies, new mobility formats, and other promising projects that may lay the foundation for the company’s further growth
• Ford Credit: the company’s financial division, which offers loan facilities to retail vehicle buyers and company dealers. The division’s operations include leasing, vehicle financing, and dealer financing for inventory replenishment

Ford Motor Company Q2 2024 report

Ford released the Q2 2024 financial results on 4 July 2024. Below are the report’s financial indicators:

• Revenue: 47.8 billion USD (+6%)
• Net income: 1.8 billion USD (-6%)
• Earnings per Share: 0.47 USD (-35%)
• Ford Blue revenue: 26.7 billion USD (+7%)
  • EBIT: 1.2 billion USD (-48%)
• Ford Pro revenue: 17.0 billion USD (+9%)
  • EBIT: 2.6 billion USD (+8%)
• Ford E revenue: 1.1 billion USD (-37%)
  • EBIT: -1.1 billion USD (unchanged)
• Ford Credit revenue: 3.0 billion USD (+20%)
  • EBIT: 0.3 billion USD (-25%)
• Total vehicle sales: 536,050 pcs (+0.8%)
  • Electric vehicles: 23,957 pcs (+61%)
  • Hybrids: 53,822 pcs (+55%)
  • ICE: 458,271 pcs (-0.5%)

The report shows that revenue growth was primarily driven by the Ford Pro division, which saw a 9% increase and achieved the highest margins compared to other divisions. Ford ranked second in US electric vehicle sales, behind Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), outperforming GM with 21,930 vehicles sold. However, unlike Tesla, Ford’s electric cars are not yet profitable, as reflected by the Ford E division’s loss of 1.1 billion USD. Consequently, Ford’s management decided to reduce production of the F-150 Lightning pickup truck and postpone 12.0 billion USD in electric vehicle development investments. Instead, the company is focusing on compact electric vehicles with higher margins. In this segment, Ford plans to compete with Tesla and the Chinese company BYD, which sells low-cost electric cars.

Ford Motor Company Q3 2024 report

On 29 October 2024, Ford released its financial results for Q3 2024. Below are the report’s key financial indicators:

• Revenue: 46.2 billion USD (+5%)
• Net income: 0.9 billion USD (-25%)
• Earnings per Share: 0.47 USD (-26%)
• Ford Blue revenue: 26.2 billion USD (+3%)
  • EBIT: 1.6 billion USD (-5%)
• Ford Pro revenue: 15.7 billion USD (+13%)
  • EBIT: 1.8 billion USD (+9%)
• Ford E revenue: 1.2 billion USD (-33%)
  • EBIT: -1.2 billion USD (compared to a loss of 1.3 billion USD a year earlier)
• Ford Credit revenue: 3.1 billion USD (+19%)
  • EBIT: 0.5 billion USD (+25%)
• Total vehicle sales: 504,039 pcs (+1%)
  • Electric vehicles: 23,509 pcs (+12%)
  • Hybrids: 48,101 pcs (+38%)
  • ICE: 432,429 pcs (-3%)

The report data shows that the company continues to face challenges with electric vehicle margins. Despite growth in EV sales, this segment remains unprofitable and requires ongoing investment, which has negatively affected net income, resulting in a 25% decline. However, the Ford Blue and Pro segments, which focus on internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and serve the commercial sector with after-sales service, are helping to mitigate these challenges. Ford Credit is another crucial division that supports the company during difficult times.

Ford Motor Company Q4 2024 report

Ford delivered its Q4 2024 financial results on 5 February 2025. Below are the report’s financial indicators:

• Revenue: 48.2 billion USD (+5%)
• Net income: 1.8 billion USD (versus a loss of 0.5 billion USD a year earlier)
• Earnings per Share: 0.45 USD (versus a loss of 0.13 USD a year earlier)
• Ford Blue revenue: 27.3 billion USD (+4%)
  • EBIT: 1.6 billion USD (+100%)
• Ford Pro revenue: 16.2 billion USD (+5%)
  • EBIT: 1.6 billion USD (-11%)
• Ford E revenue: 1.4 billion USD (-12%)
  • EBIT: -1.4 billion USD (versus a loss of 1.6 billion USD a year earlier)
• Ford Credit revenue: 3.3 billion USD (+6%)
  • EBIT: 0.4 billion USD (+33%)
• Total vehicle sales: 530,660 pcs (+1%)
  • Electric vehicles: 30,176 pcs (+16%)
  • Hybrids: 47,082 pcs (+26%)
  • ICE: 453,402 pcs (+7%)

The report reaffirmed that Ford continues to face challenges with electric vehicle margins, with the Ford E segment remaining unprofitable. However, the traditional business of selling internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continues to provide support.

Investors reacted negatively to the report, causing the stock price to drop by 7.5% after its release. The losses in the Ford E division were not a factor, as market participants have already accounted for its weak financial performance. Instead, concerns centred on the company’s 2025 outlook. Despite revenue growth to 48.2 billion USD and net income of 1.8 billion USD, Ford warned of a potential decline in adjusted EBIT to 7.0-8.5 billion USD in 2025, down from the 2024 figure of 10.2 billion USD. Another key concern was the possibility of a 25% import tariff on cars from Mexico and Canada, which could adversely affect Ford’s financial results, given the company’s reliance on Mexican plants for low-cost production.

Expert forecasts for Ford Motor Company stock for 2025

• Barchart: out of 19 analysts, three rated Ford Motor Company’s stock as Strong Buy, 11 as Hold, one as Sell, and four as Strong Sell. The highest price target is 19 USD, and the lowest is 8 USD
• MarketBeat: out of 15 specialists, four gave a Buy rating, eight recommended Hold, and three advised Sell, with a price target range of 8-18 USD
• TipRanks: out of 15 respondents, four rated the stock as Buy, eight as Hold, and three as Sell, with a price target range of 8-17 USD
• Stock Analysis: among 16 experts, three rated the shares as Strong Buy, two as Buy, eight as Hold, and three as Sell, with a price target range of 8-18 USD

Ford Motor Company stock price forecast for 2025

On the monthly timeframe, Ford stock has been trading between 9 and 14 USD since June 2022. Following the quarterly earnings release, the quotes headed downward, and the 9 USD support level is being tested. Based on Ford Motor Company’s stock performance, the possible price movements for 2025 are as follows.

The primary forecast for Ford Motor Company’s stock suggests a breakout below the 9 USD support level, leading to a decline to 5 USD. This scenario is considered the most likely due to weak 2025 guidance. A similar situation recently occurred with Tesla shares, where the quotes broke below the support level and continued to fall.

The alternative forecast for Ford Motor Company’s stock predicts a rebound from the 9 USD support level, followed by a rise to the range’s upper boundary at 14 USD. The quotes may continue trading between 9 USD and 14 USD in 2025 until the company resolves its EV profitability issue.

Risks of investing in Ford Motor Company stock

Investing in Ford Motor Company’s shares involves certain risks that must be considered. Below are the key ones:

• Cyclical nature of the automotive sector: the automotive industry is highly dependent on economic cycles. During periods of economic downturn or recession, demand for new cars may decline significantly, which could negatively affect Ford’s revenue
• Intense competition: Ford faces fierce competition from both established automotive giants such as General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) and new players in the electric vehicle (EV) market, such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). This competition may lead to a reduction in market share and increased pricing pressure
• Transition to electric vehicles: investment in developing and producing electric vehicles is expensive and risky. Ford is actively working to expand its EV portfolio, but this requires substantial investment with uncertain return timelines. Additionally, the company is reporting losses in its Ford E division, highlighting the risks associated with this part of its business
• Technology and innovation risks: the rapid pace of technological change in the automotive industry, including autonomous driving, vehicle connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI), requires Ford to innovate continually. Any mistakes in integrating new technologies or falling behind competitors could negatively impact the company’s stock
• Currency and geopolitical risks: Ford operates globally with manufacturing facilities and sales across many countries. Fluctuations in exchange rates, trade wars, tariffs, and geopolitical instability could all impact the company’s profitability and operating costs
• Dividend risks: Ford has historically paid dividends but given the losses in areas like the EV segment, these may be reduced or suspended. This could adversely affect shareholders who rely on stable returns

Summary

The automotive industry is transitioning from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, and Ford is no exception. The company is refocusing on electric cars and hybrids, and its revenues also include related services and software sales. This multi-faceted approach could position Ford as a versatile player in the market, capable of meeting diverse consumer needs. However, the success of this strategy will largely depend on Ford’s ability to scale up electric vehicle production while ensuring its profitability, which is already a significant challenge.

If Ford can successfully manage the transition to electric vehicles and use its brand alongside innovations in software and services, it could emerge as a more robust and diversified car company. However, there is a risk that the EV segment may not become profitable in the near term, potentially leading to financial pressure or necessitating a strategic shift.

The market’s reaction to the release of the quarterly earnings report suggests that investors are sceptical about the company’s plans and question their full implementation.