Amid strengthening USD, the EURUSD pair may decline towards 1.1555. Discover more in our analysis for 17 July 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 1.9%, projected at 2.0%
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 227 thousand, projected at 223 thousand
- EURUSD forecast for 17 July 2025: 1.1555
Fundamental analysis
The eurozone CPI reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping assess shifts in purchasing trends and economic stagnation. If the CPI comes in above forecast, it may positively impact the euro.
The EURUSD forecast for 17 July 2025 suggests the index may rise to 2.0%, up from the previous 1.9%. While the change is minimal, a weaker-than-expected print could put additional pressure on the EURUSD rate.
US initial jobless claims show how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. It serves as a gauge of labour market health, with rising claims pointing to growing unemployment.
The previous figure stood at 227 thousand, and the forecast for 17 July 2025 appears optimistic, suggesting a decline to 223 thousand. Although the change is minor, a decline in claims, combined with other fundamental US data, may offer further support to the USD.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair may continue its corrective wave in response to this signal. Given that the price remains within a descending channel, a further decline towards the nearest support at 1.1555 can be expected. A breakout below this support level would open the path for continued downside movement.
However, the EURUSD rate could correct towards 1.1650 and return to an uptrend.
Summary
Today’s EURUSD forecast favours the USD. Combined with EURUSD technical analysis, stronger US economic indicators suggest a likely decline towards the 1.1555 support level after a corrective move.
