GBPUSD forecast: the pair awaits UK inflation data

The GBPUSD rate is consolidating around 1.2600, with market participants awaiting UK inflation statistics today. Discover more in our GBPUSD analysis for today, 19 February 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: UK inflation statistics for January will be published today during the European session, with the US Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes scheduled for release during the American session
• Current trend: there is an upward momentum within the long-term downtrend
• GBPUSD forecast for 19 February 2025: 1.2500 и 1.2665

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD pair is moderately rising. Market participants are awaiting UK inflation statistics for January today, with the Consumer Price Index (expected to rise by 2.8% y/y) and Producer Price Index (projected to increase by 0.1% y/y) scheduled for release. Higher-than-expected inflation data may drive up the pair, while weaker figures could send down the quotes.

The market will also focus on the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, at which the regulator kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5%. Fed’s comments aimed at further rate cuts will bolster the pound sterling. Conversely, doubts about the need for further easing of monetary polity could strengthen the US dollar, pushing down the pair.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the GBPUSD pair is experiencing a local upward momentum, rising to the price area above 1.2600. The Alligator indicator also confirms growth. However, the long-term trend is still downward, with the asset likely to continue to decline after the upward movement is completed.

The short-term GBPUSD forecast suggests that the pair has the potential for growth to the 1.2800 resistance level if the bulls keep the quotes above the 1.2580-1.2600 support area. However, the decline could continue if the bears gain a foothold below 1.2580, with the next target at the 1.2500 support level.

Summary

The GBPUSD pair is consolidating around 1.2600. Today, the market focus is on UK inflation statistics and the US Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes.