The upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision could propel the GBPUSD pair towards 1.3440. Discover more in our analysis for 7 May 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
- UK construction PMI: previously at 46.4, projected at 46.0
- Fed interest rate decision: previously at 4.5%, projected at 4.5%
- GBPUSD forecast for 7 May 2025: 1.3440 and 1.3270
Fundamental analysis
The UK construction PMI is a monthly gauge that reflects the performance of the country's construction sector. Compiled from purchasing manager surveys, it assesses new orders, employment, and business confidence in construction companies.
A reading above 50.0 indicates growth, while a lower figure signals contraction.
The forecast for 7 May 2025 suggests a further decline in the UK construction PMI to 46.0. Although not dramatic, the reading remains below the 50.0 threshold, which could be a negative factor for the pound and support the ongoing corrective wave.
The GBPUSD forecast also hinges on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement. Markets remain divided, intensifying uncertainty. While the consensus expects the rate to remain unchanged at 4.5%, the possibility of a shift cannot be ruled out. The announcement poses a serious challenge for investors and could significantly impact the GBPUSD rate.
GBPUSD technical analysis
Having tested the upper Bollinger Band, the GBPUSD price has formed a Harami reversal pattern on the H4 chart. It is now developing a corrective wave following the received signal. Since the pair remains within an ascending channel, and given today’s fundamental data from both the US and UK, the bullish wave will likely develop following a correction.
The target for the pullback is 1.3270. A rebound from the support level could open the door for a more substantial upward movement.
The GBPUSD forecast for today also takes into account an alternative scenario, where the price climbs to 1.3440 without testing the support level.
Summary
Alongside the GBPUSD technical analysis, a weaker UK construction PMI and the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision suggest growth to 1.3440 after a correction.
