GBPUSD: the pound has the potential to strengthen against the US dollar

David Ramsden’s speech may trigger a further decline in the GBPUSD rate to 1.2700. Find more details in our analysis for 9 December 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• A speech by a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee David Ramsden
• US wholesale inventories (m/m): previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.2%
• US wholesale sales: previously at 0.3%
• GBPUSD forecast for 9 December 2024: 1.2700, 1.2670, and 1.2630

Fundamental analysis

A member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee David Ramsden will deliver a speech today, in which he will likely address current economic challenges, including inflation and its impact on the UK economy. He might also mention the measures the MPC will take to achieve the 2.0% inflation target. In his speech, Ramsden could also pay attention to the recent economic turmoil and its consequences for the monetary policy of the UK regulator.

US wholesale inventories show the amount of goods available for wholesale. The data is based on a survey of over 4,500 companies and is calculated at the end of the current month compared to the previous one. The forecast for 9 December 2024 takes into account that the indicator could remain flat at 0.2%.

Fundamental analysis for 9 December 2024 shows that US wholesale sales have gradually increased in the past months; this growth cannot be considered strong, although there is clearly an uptrend. Increased wholesale sales may signal the improved well-being of the population.

GBPUSD technical analysis

The GBPUSD H4 chart shows that the market has reached the 1.2810 level. A wave towards 1.2630 might form today, 9 December 2024. The price tumbled to 1.2720 and could rise to 1.2760 before declining to 1.2670 and potentially continuing the wave to 1.2630, the first target.

The Elliott Wave structure and wave matrix, with a pivot point at 1.2630, technically support this scenario for the GBPUSD rate. The market has climbed to the upper boundary of a price envelope at 1.2810. After reaching this level, a downward wave is forming, aiming for the envelope’s central line at 1.2700. Subsequently, the price could break below this level and decline to the envelope’s lower boundary at 1.2630 and potentially further to 1.2473.

Summary

Alongside technical analysis for today’s GBPUSD forecast, Ramsden’s speech suggests a potential downward wave towards the 1.2700, 1.2670, and 1.2630 levels.