Gold (XAUUSD) continues to retreat. Prices are moving towards the support zone at 3,160 USD. See our full analysis for 14 May 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- The market awaits a potential Fed rate decision
- Current trend: moving upwards (but short-term correction active)
- XAUUSD forecast for 14 May 2025: 3,305 and 3,160
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD analysis leans positive for the US dollar as gold trades lower near 3,225 USD per ounce. The retreat reflects improving investor sentiment after the easing of trade tariffs between the US and China, which reduced safe-haven demand.
Additional pressure on gold comes from rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, even as the DXY index tests resistance at 101.90.
However, soft US inflation data bolsters expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which supports long-term interest in gold – a rate-sensitive asset.
In the near term, forecasts suggest a potential decline in XAUUSD to 3,160 USD. Still, longer-term projections remain bullish, with some estimates targeting 3,900 USD by year-end.
Gold’s current movement reflects a tug-of-war between improved global risk appetite and the growing likelihood of Fed policy easing.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a bearish Engulfing pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. The price is now developing a downward wave within the longer-term upward channel, signalling a short-term correction.
Key support lies at 3,160 USD. If this level holds, buyers may attempt a recovery towards 3,305 USD without needing to test the support.
Once the correction ends, XAUUSD could resume its upward momentum and potentially reach 3,900 USD in the medium-to-long term.
Summary
The reduction in US-China tariffs has lifted the US dollar, placing short-term pressure on gold. However, expectations of Fed rate cuts keep the longer-term outlook for XAUUSD positive. For now, technicals point to a correction towards 3,160 USD, followed by a potential rebound towards 3,305 USD and beyond.
