Gold (XAUUSD) at the start of a rally, dollar may lose ground
Ahead of US jobless claims data, XAUUSD may head towards the 3,340 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 31 July 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- US continuing jobless claims: previously at 1.955 million, projected at 1.960 million
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 217 thousand, projected at 222 thousand
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 31 July 2025: 3,340
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows gold trading near 3,300 USD per ounce, rebounding after a decline to the 3,275 USD support level earlier this week.
Continuing jobless claims in the US reflect the number of people filing again for unemployment benefits. The XAUUSD forecast for 31 July 2025 assumes this figure may rise to 1.960 million. A rise in claims signals a growing number of unemployed and weighs negatively on the economy.
US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.
The previous figure was 217 thousand, and today’s price forecast is negative for the US dollar, suggesting a rise to 222 thousand. Although the change is minor, data in line with or below expectations could impact XAUUSD quotes.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may start an upward wave following the signal from the pattern. Given that XAUUSD prices have broken out of the ascending channel, a potential return into the channel could resume the uptrend. For now, an upside target may be the 3,340 USD resistance level.
However, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers a second scenario, where prices correct towards the 3,260 USD level before a new upward move.
The opportunity to resume the uptrend remains valid, and XAUUSD quotes may target the 3,500 USD mark in the near term.
Summary
Along with XAUUSD technical analysis, negative economic projections for the US suggest a potential move higher towards the 3,340 USD resistance level.