Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 3,794 USD. The market is ready to reach new highs while the situation in the US remains tense. Find out more in our analysis for 29 September 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Gold (XAUUSD) sets new records amid the US situation
- The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October stands at no less than 90%
- XAUUSD forecast for 29 September 2025: 3,799 and 3,820
Fundamental analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 3,794 per ounce on Monday, remaining close to record levels reached last week. Prices were supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar.
PCE price index data for August matched forecasts, reinforcing expectations of further policy easing. Markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and about 65% in December.
At the same time, investors are watching the risk of a US government shutdown, which could delay the release of key labour market data and complicate the Fed’s work. Additional uncertainty comes from new tariffs announced by Donald Trump: starting 1 October, duties will be imposed on imported medicines, trucks, and furniture.
The forecast for gold (XAUUSD) is positive.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, gold (XAUUSD) has shown steady growth since the beginning of September, with quotes rising from around 3,510 to current highs. In mid-September, prices consolidated in the 3,660–3,730 range, after which a new upward impulse followed.
By 29 September, quotes reached 3,794–3,799 per ounce. Prices hit new local highs and came close to a key resistance level. Bollinger Bands are pointing upwards, confirming the strength of the trend and rising volatility.
Thus, gold remains in an uptrend. A breakout above 3,799 will open the way to new historical records. In case of a correction, the nearest support will be the 3,660–3,627 zone.
Summary
Gold (XAUUSD) is heading towards new records and is not stopping yet. The gold (XAUUSD) forecast for today, 29 September 2025, expects continued growth to 3,799 and then to 3,820.
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