Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen

Rising US jobless claims and a potential decline in GDP open the potential for XAUUSD growth to 2,790 USD. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 30 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Q4 GDP: previously at 3.1%, projected at 2.7%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 223 thousand, projected at 224 thousand
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 30 January 2025: 2,790 and 2,740

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 30 January 2025 shows that XAUUSD prices are consolidating around 2,761 USD, and the pair could continue to form a growth wave in the future.

Today, the US will release Q4 GDP data, which is projected to decrease to 2.7%, down from the previous reading. Given that GDP is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country, calculated only for end products, excluding the costs of raw materials, its decline may indicate an economic downturn.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The previous reading was 223 thousand, and the forecast for 30 January 2024 appears rather optimistic, suggesting an increase in jobless claims to 224 thousand. This is a minor change, and the release of data that aligns with expectations will not have a significant impact on XAUUSD quotes.

XAUUSD technical analysis

After a pullback, XAUUSD prices formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band on the H4 chart. At this stage, prices continue their upward trajectory following the signal from the pattern. The uptrend will likely continue as the price remains within the ascending channel after a pullback.

The upside target might be the next resistance level at 2,790 USD. A breakout above this level could open the door for a more substantial upward movement.

However, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests another scenario, including a price correction towards 2,740 USD before further growth. Once the correction is complete, Gold could reach a new all-time high in the short term and head towards 2,800 USD.

Summary

The forecast decline in US GDP and the XAUUSD technical analysis suggest a rise in Gold prices, with the upside target likely to be at 2,790 USD.