Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2024, 2025 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Disclaimer: the information in this article is based on the analysis of reputable financial resources and analytical data from RoboForex specialists. It reflects the conclusions of thorough research, but it should be taken into account that economic changes may significantly affect market conditions, which may lead to changes in gold forecasts. We recommend conducting your own research and consulting with professionals before making important financial decisions.

Gold has always been regarded as one of the most reliable assets, especially in times of economic instability and financial turmoil it is referred to as a ‘safe-haven asset’. This precious metal not only retains its value in the long term, but often increases in value when other assets depreciate. In this regard, analysing and forecasting gold prices for 2024-2025 is of particular relevance.

Over the past year, gold has risen in price by more than 34%. Among the main reasons for the growth, traders highlight geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, as well as continued purchases of metal by global central banks. In addition, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and uncertainty around the US presidential election had a significant impact. The bullish trend in the gold market peaked in September 2024 when the Fed began cutting rates for the first time since 2020. The historical record of XAUUSD was recorded on 31 October near the mark of 2790 USD per ounce, after which a downward correction began.

Table of contents:

• Key takeaways: gold (XAUUSD) price prediction
• How to make a gold price forecast?
• Why has the price of gold increased?
• XAUUSD current rate in the Forex market
• Gold (XAUUSD) weekly technical analysis
• Long-term gold (XAUUSD) technical analysis
• Expert gold price forecast 2024 and beyond
• Expert gold price predictions for 2030
• Pros and cons of investing in gold
• Conclusion
• FAQ

Key takeaways: gold price prediction

Analysts expect the price of gold to continue to rise, reaching new record levels. In 2025, it is predicted that the value of XAUUSD may reach 3000 USD per ounce, and within two years it may rise to 3700 USD per ounce. Experts attribute the potential rise in gold prices to high demand from major central banks and changes in the Fed's monetary policy.

Investors believe that central banks will remain active buyers of gold until the end of 2024, but the total amount of purchases this year will be slightly lower than in the previous two years due to the sharp rise in gold prices since March this year. Nevertheless, global central banks currently hold 12.1% of the world's gold reserves, the highest level in three decades.

In the future, it is forecasted that major central banks will continue to add gold to their reserves despite current economic challenges such as rising US debt and the gradual fragmentation of the global economy.

How to make a gold price forecast?

Gold price forecasts are based on the analysis of the main factors determining its supply and demand. It also takes into account the price patterns on the price chart, the assessment of technical indicators, as well as the dynamics in emerging markets. Experts and investors distinguish three main approaches that allow to make an accurate forecast of the cost of gold:

• US monetary policy
• Central bank purchases
• Geopolitical risks

These key drivers are significantly influenced by the level of confidence in the US dollar and its current strength or weakness. Other important factors analysts highlight include changes in investor sentiment, political instability during the election period, the threat of recession, ETF outflows, physical demand sensitivity, the US unemployment rate, and bank and industry risks in the US and China.

Fundamental factors

Fundamental analysis of gold (XAU/USD) relies on changes in monetary policy by central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as well as other key factors affecting the gold price. These include the level of global consumption, investment in the metal, increased demand from central banks, the Fed rate cut and the suspension of gold purchases by China. These factors significantly influence the price dynamics and form the basis for further forecasts on gold.

Fed interest rate cut

Gold has traditionally shown a close correlation with the dynamics of interest rates of central banks. Historically, gold has shown steady growth in the context of falling interest rates and accelerating inflation, acting as a risk hedge. The current shift in the US monetary cycle has been one of the factors behind the rise in gold prices in 2024. In September 2024, the regulator cut the interest rate by 50 basis points for the first time since 2020, and further cuts are expected by the end of 2024.

Global demand for gold

According to the World Gold Council's Q3 2024 report, total gold demand rose 5% y-o-y to 1,313 tonnes, a record high for Q3. The total value of demand exceeded 100 billion USD for the first time, occurring amidst high investment levels at record gold prices.

Global investment demand doubled to 364 tonnes thanks to increased interest in ETFs, mainly from Western investors. ETFs in gold added 95 tonnes, marking the first positive quarter since early 2022. Meanwhile, demand for bars and coins fell 9%, but the annual total remains strong at 859 tonnes, above the 10-year average of 774 tonnes.

Demand for gold in the technology sector increased by 7% due to increased use in electronics, supported by the artificial intelligence boom.

Gold purchases by central banks

Central banks purchased 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2023, the second highest annual volume of gold purchases in history, behind only the record of 1,082 tonnes purchased in 2022. This data confirms gold's status as a reliable reserve asset for global economies. According to The World Gold Council, net gold purchases by central banks more than doubled to 37 tonnes in July 2024. This represents a 206% increase on the previous month and the highest monthly total since January, when 45 tonnes were purchased.

According to the 2024 survey of 70 central banks, 29 per cent of respondents plan to increase their gold reserves over the next year - the highest figure since such surveys began in 2018. The main reasons cited for increasing reserves include a desire to achieve optimal reserve levels, support for domestic gold production, and fears of financial crises and inflation.

Central banks of developed countries traditionally have a large share of gold in their reserves. For example, in the US, France, Germany and Italy, gold accounts for about 70 per cent of reserves. In emerging markets, this figure is much lower - in China, gold accounts for only 5.7% of reserves. However, central banks in emerging markets are actively building up their gold reserves in an effort to reach levels similar to those of developed economies, which could support future gold growth.

China has stopped buying gold

The Central Bank of China has refrained from buying gold for its reserves over the past six recent. China's gold reserves stood at 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of October 2024, with the value rising to USD 199.06 billion from USD 191.47 billion at the end of September. The share of gold in the total reserves of the People's Bank of China, an important indicator for many central banks, increased to 5.7% at the end of October, up from 4.9% in April.

Investors speculate that another one month without gold purchases may indicate that China is waiting for more favourable prices to build up its gold reserves. Overall, however, China continues to stick to its strategy of accumulating foreign exchange reserves and intends to significantly increase its gold reserves, limiting its purchases due to high metal prices.

Tech analysis

This approach involves analysing historical data on gold charts to identify price trends using various technical indicators, chart patterns and other analytical tools. Technical analysis helps to identify key resistance and support levels, trend lines, as well as to predict possible price reversals over the long term.

Based on historical data, we see that XAU/USD, as a rule, demonstrates an upward trend in the long term. Therefore, trend indicators such as Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands and the Ishimoku indicator are often used to analyse it. Oscillators such as RSI and MACD help to identify where the downward correction may end and signal possible upward reversal points.

Market sentiment

The main fundamental factors supporting the growth of gold prices remain stable. Sustained demand from major central banks, which are actively increasing their gold reserves, continues to contribute to a positive mood in the market. This is particularly evident in emerging markets, where central banks are seeking to diversify assets and reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

Increasing geopolitical tensions, including in the Middle East, are adding to global uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe assets such as gold. In Q3, a significant driver of demand for gold was capital inflows into gold ETFs. After a period of declining demand, these funds showed net inflows for five consecutive months, indicating an active reallocation of capital by institutional investors and fuelling further growth in prices for the precious metal.

Why has the price of gold increased?

The price of gold in 2024 rose on the back of several key factors. Firstly, the increase in demand for the metal is associated with expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, which puts pressure on the US dollar and supports the attractiveness of gold. It is also important to note the active purchases of gold by major central banks seeking to strengthen their reserves, as well as the growing interest in gold as a safe haven asset against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East.

An additional factor was the effect caused by Russia's freezing of US dollar assets, which caused many governments to reconsider their wealth preservation strategies and look for alternatives in gold. At the end of the summer, these factors were supplemented by the growth of domestic demand in China, where local investors began to choose gold as an investment more often against the background of stagnation in the stock market.

XAUUSD current rate in the Forex market

Gold (XAUUSD) weekly technical analysis

On the daily timeframe, gold (XAUUSD) is moving in an uptrend, despite the current bearish correction, which is likely to be coming to an end. The quotes remain above the 120-day moving average, which acts as a dynamic support. Since the price fixation above the linear EMA in December 2023, there have been only two tests of this average - in December 2023 and February 2024. The last downside attempt on 14 November 2024 did not reach the EMA line, which confirms the remaining bullish mood in the market and the pressure from the buyers. The current behaviour of gold quotes indicates a high probability of the uptrend continuation as long as the price holds above the 120-day moving average. A consolidation below this line will be a key signal for a possible trend change.

Analysing the daily chart of XAU/USD using the Stochastic Oscillator indicator confirms a strong upward trend in gold. The indicator values are often above the 80 level during the current movement, but the price continues to rise despite being overbought. The fall of Stochastic Oscillator values below the level of 20 is accompanied by further growth of quotations. The last time the indicator fell below the level of 20 on 18 November 2024, after which the price began to recover, despite a small correction. The previous signal in favour of growth from June 13, 2024 was the beginning of the rise in gold prices by more than 20%. It is noteworthy that the first correction after this signal occurred when the indicator crossed the level of 80. In the current situation, the Stochastic Oscillator analysis shows the potential for further growth of XAU/USD because the indicator values just broke through the level of 56, and this indicates the possibility of continuing the upward movement at least to the level of 80.
On the daily chart of XAUUSD, a Diamond pattern is forming, which may indicate both the continuation of the current trend and its reversal. In case of a breakdown of the upper boundary of the pattern and consolidation of the price above the level of 2745 USD, the continuation of growth is likely with a potential target at the level of 3055 USD, which corresponds to the full realisation of the pattern. A negative scenario for buyers implies a breakdown of the lower boundary of the pattern with price consolidation under the level of 2575 USD. This scenario may indicate the end of the uptrend and a decline in quotes to the level of 2290 USD.

Long-term gold (XAUUSD) technical analysis

When making a long-term forecast of gold prices, it is important to take into account several possible scenarios. As part of the forecast, we will highlight the key support and resistance levels and analyse the behaviour of quotes within the Bollinger Bands indicator. Let's consider how often and how much prices manage to break through one of the sides of this trend indicator, which will help to better understand the current market trends and investor sentiment. It is worth noting that when key levels are broken, gold can either accelerate the development of upward movement or go into correction depending on changes in the external economic situation.

Bullish scenario

On the weekly timeframe, since the end of 2023, XAU/USD quotes have been stably holding above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which indicates the prevalence of the bullish trend. Currently, the prices also remain above this line, while regularly breaking the upper boundary of the indicator, which indicates the growing pressure from the buyers. Within the framework of the positive scenario and price forecast for XAU/USD, we can expect further growth in the prices of the precious metal with a breakdown of the nearest resistance at the level of 2720 USD. A consolidation above this mark is likely to lead to testing the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands at 2815 USD. Earlier there was an acceleration of growth when the upper boundary of the indicator was broken, therefore, if the price consolidates above the level of 2815 USD, we can expect the continuation of the bullish trend with the first target at the level of 3000 USD.

Bearish scenario

The second possible scenario is insufficient activity of buyers to overcome the level of 2720 USD. In this case, if the support level of 2535 USD is broken, the next downside target will be the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands indicator at 2375 USD. It is worth noting that this area will be a strong level for buyers, as there is an ascending trend line, as well as the RSI indicator will test the long-term support line. If this level does not hold, the next target for the bears will be the 2045 USD mark. In this case, we can expect a deeper bearish correction of XAUUSD, which will depend on further market behaviour and macroeconomic factors.

Sideways scenario

We can already see a pullback from both resistance at 2795 USD and support at 2535 USD. In the middle of 2024, XAU/USD quotes were already trapped in a sideways movement between the levels of 2420 USD and 2270 USD. Therefore, if buyers fail to consolidate above the 2795 USD resistance level and bears fail to push prices below 2535 USD, there is a possibility that gold will remain within the sideways range for some time. This scenario may indicate uncertainty in the market and waiting for further factors to influence the price and push prices out of the range.

Expert gold price forecast 2024 and beyond

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan Research expects gold prices to reach 2500 USD by the end of 2024 amid the anticipated start of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle in November. This move, according to forecasts, could help set new price highs, and gold could rise to 3000 USD by the end of 2025.

UBS

The Chief Investment Officer continues to view gold as a prioritised asset in its global capital allocation strategy and has raised its price forecasts: to 2750 USD by the end of the current 2024 and to 2850 USD by mid-2025.

SaxoBank

After reaching a record high of 2658 USD on 31 October, gold 2024 corrected by 253 USD, showing increased volatility. Despite the magnitude of the previous rise, the decline was relatively small. Nevertheless, SaxoBank's forecast of reaching the 3000 USD mark in 2025 remains valid.

Commerzbank

Commerzbank expects gold prices to reach 2600 USD by mid-2025. Given that the current Fed forecasts do not include a rate hike in 2026, the target price for the end of 2025 is therefore raised to 2600 USD and above the previous estimate of 2550 USD.

ANZ

ANZ commodity strategists emphasised that the breakout of the gold price above the 2550 USD mark will continue to attract the attention of optimistic investors. Experts predict that by the end of 2025 gold may rise to 2900 USD. The main driver of growth will be the recovery of investment demand, which in the first half of 2024 was lower than expected.

Macquarie

The rapid growth of gold prices prompted Macquarie analysts to revise their expectations upwards. Forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted by 2-3 per cent and long-term estimates have been increased by 11 per cent. Macquarie's updated gold price forecast assumes a price of 2339 USD in 2024 and 2463 USD in 2025.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs predicts that gold will reach 3000 USD by the end of next year. This optimistic forecast is based on growing demand from central banks and increased inflows into exchange-traded investment funds on the back of the Fed's policies.

Bank of America

Bank of America strategists expect that gold prices could reach 3000 USD next year. Since the end of 2023, the commodities team maintains a bullish outlook for gold, suggesting that the price could rise to this mark by 2025. However, to achieve this target, long-term demand growth is needed, which would require a US interest rate cut.

Citi Research

Citi Research raised its gold price forecast, pointing to a possible deterioration in the US labour market, a Fed interest rate cut and increased purchases of physical gold and ETFs. The bank raised its forecast for the next three months to 2800 USD, from the previous 2700 USD, and set its 6-12 month forecast at 3000 USD.

Expert gold price predictions for 2030

Many experts agree on the long-term bullish trend of the gold price as various fundamental factors point to it. Below are some of the expert opinions:

Charlie Morris, Head Of Multi Asset, Atlantic House Investments in the article in Alchemist magazine predicts a possible gold price of $7000 per ounce by 2030. His prediction is based on several key factors. First, real inflation is expected to increase, which Morris believes could reach 4 per cent per decade. Second, real interest rates are expected to change. In addition, a fair value premium is factored in, which could increase substantially. These assumptions are based on analyses of current and past trends in the economy and the gold market.

Another analyst Peter Leeds predicts that the gold price could reach 10,000 USD per ounce by 2030, driven by a number of economic and geopolitical factors. The main drivers of growth are the weakening of the US dollar due to the huge national debt, the growing budget deficit and its decreasing role in international trade, especially with the reduced use of the petrodollar. The BRICS countries, which are actively building up gold reserves, are also having an impact: their new gold-backed currency is expected to become a serious competitor to the dollar. An additional growth factor will be global economic instability and the growing demand for gold as an ‘insurance’ asset.

The author emphasises that gold prices will grow annually, but the timing of reaching the 10,000 USD mark depends on the speed of development of the processes mentioned above. The key triggers may be the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, devaluation of the dollar or mass transition of investors to gold. To maximise the benefits, it is recommended to invest both in physical gold and in shares of gold mining companies with low debts and high reserves. Gold remains a solid defence against economic turmoil and loss of purchasing power of currencies.

Pros and cons of investing in gold

Gold has long been one of the most popular instruments for capital protection and risk mitigation. Even though it has many advantages, such as protection against inflation and portfolio diversification, it is important to consider the disadvantages of investing in this asset. For an investor, knowing the pros and cons of investing in gold helps in making informed investment decisions.

Pros

• Inflation protection: gold traditionally serves as a reliable hedge against inflation. As prices rise and the purchasing power of currency falls, gold maintains or even increases its value, helping investors protect their savings.
• Portfolio diversification: gold can add diversification to an investment portfolio because its value typically has low correlation with stocks and bonds. Therefore, the price of this precious metal often moves in the opposite direction, reducing overall portfolio risk.
• Liquidity: gold is a highly liquid asset that can be easily bought and sold on global markets. This makes it attractive for investors who may need to quickly convert their assets into cash.
• Safe-haven in crises: during periods of economic or geopolitical instability, gold is often seen as a "safe haven" asset. Investors tend to invest in the metal amidst uncertainty, which often supports and can even increase the value of gold when other assets may be declining.
• Tangible asset: unlike stocks or bonds, gold is a physical, tangible asset that can be held and stored. This gives investors a sense of confidence and security compared to digital assets.
• Long-term value preservation: over time, gold has maintained its value, making it a reliable means of preserving wealth through generations. It is less susceptible to risks associated with fiat currencies and other financial assets.
• Global demand: gold is in demand worldwide, both as a commodity for industrial use and as a store of value. This global demand supports stability and provides potential for price growth.

Cons

• Lack of passive income: unlike stocks or bonds, gold does not generate passive income, such as dividends or interest. Investors can only rely on the appreciation of gold, which can be unpredictable.
• Volatility: despite its reputation as a stable asset, gold can exhibit significant short-term price fluctuations. These fluctuations can lead to losses for investors focused on short-term gains.
• Storage costs: physical gold requires secure storage, especially when held in large quantities. This adds additional costs that can reduce the overall profitability of gold investments.
• Lack of yield: gold does not generate income, unlike bonds or stocks. This can be a drawback for investors seeking regular passive income from their investments.
• Dependence on global factors: the value of gold depends on numerous factors such as supply and demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical situations. This means that gold prices can be subject to external shocks over which investors have no control.
• Market manipulation risks: XAU/USD prices can be affected by market manipulations, especially by large financial institutions or states, which can lead to unpredictable price changes.
• Opportunity costs: investing in gold means essentially locking capital in a non-yielding asset. This can lead to missed opportunities for investing in other assets that may offer higher returns over time, such as stocks or bonds.

Conclusion

Several key factors drove the gold price higher in 2024. The US Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts weakened the US dollar for the first time since 2020, which increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. Global demand for the metal also increased, especially from central banks, which have been actively building up their gold reserves. Geopolitical tensions, including events in the Middle East, made gold a safe asset for investors.

From a technical perspective, XAUUSD continues to climb in a long-term uptrend. Price remains above the moving averages and technical indicators such as MACD are pointing to a continuation of the bullish movement despite some bearish corrections. The formation of the ‘Diamond’ pattern on the chart suggests that a break of the upper boundary of the 2750 USD level could lead to further price growth, with a target at the 3055 USD level. At the same time, a breakdown of the lower boundary at 2530 USD signals the end of the current uptrend and a possible decline to 2280 USD.

Forecasts of analysts from major banks and research centres point to a strong rise in gold prices in the coming years. It is expected that XAUUSD may reach 2500-2800 USD in 2024, and by the end of 2025 its value will rise to 2900-3000 USD.

Overall, US monetary policy, strong central bank demand, geopolitical risks and technical signals - support a bullish outlook for XAUUSD in 2024. If these trends continue, the price of gold could rise significantly, making it a valuable asset for investors seeking stability in the face of uncertainty.