XAUUSD remains resilient, supported by continued demand from central banks, with prices currently at 3,386 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 18 June 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand for gold
- Citi analysts warn that the peak in gold demand may have passed
- XAUUSD forecast for 18 June 2025: 3,475
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD prices are holding above the 3,380 USD support level for the second consecutive session. Despite ongoing corrective movement, buying pressure persists due to strong demand amid geopolitical concerns.
Further market support comes from the latest World Gold Council survey: 95% of central banks believe global gold reserves will continue to rise over the next year, and nearly half plan to increase their own gold holdings.
However, Citi analysts caution that the peak in demand may already be behind us. Their forecast sees XAUUSD prices potentially falling to 2,500 USD by the end of 2025, driven by the normalisation of the political situation in the US. Citi also notes that a 100-basis-point cut by the Fed typically triggers a gold price drop of over 200 USD per ounce.
XAUUSD technical analysis
XAUUSD quotes are correcting after rebounding from the upper boundary of the ascending channel but remain above the Moving Averages – a sign of ongoing bullish pressure. Today's XAUUSD analysis suggests a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel and a potential rise towards 3,475 USD. The Stochastic Oscillator supports the upside scenario, with its signal lines turning upwards from the oversold area, indicating a potential bullish impulse. A breakout above the correction channel’s upper boundary with consolidation above 3,410 USD would confirm the bullish outlook.
Summary
Despite a local correction, demand for gold remains robust due to persistent geopolitical risks and central bank interest. The XAUUSD forecast points to a likely continuation of the upward move towards 3,475 USD if prices break above the 3,410 USD resistance level.
