Easing geopolitical tensions and improving trade relations between China and the US are strengthening the US dollar. XAUUSD is now trading near the 4,000 USD mark. Find more details in our analysis for 3 November 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- US ISM manufacturing PMI: previously at 49.1, projected at 49.4
- Improving trade relations between the US and China
- XAUUSD forecast for 3 November 2025: 4,135 and 3,965
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold prices have declined to around 3,900 USD per ounce but are now attempting to recover, trading close to 4,000 USD.
The XAUUSD forecast for 3 November 2025 highlights several factors behind gold’s weakness:
- A stronger US dollar and reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset
- Market expectations of further Fed rate cuts
- Lower expectations of geopolitical escalation globally
- Easing trade tensions between the US and China
The US ISM manufacturing PMI is projected to rise to 49.4 from the previous 49.1. If the data beats forecasts, it could further support the US dollar and trigger a correction in XAUUSD quotes.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices have formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, gold is developing an upward wave in line with this pattern, and given that prices remain within an ascending channel, the next upside target could be 4,135 USD.
However, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also suggests an alternative scenario with a short-term pullback towards 3,965 USD before growth.
The medium-term outlook remains constructive, with the potential for XAUUSD to eventually target the psychologically significant 4,500 USD level.
Summary
As of 3 November 2025, gold remains under pressure from a stronger US dollar and solid US economic data. The current correction in XAUUSD appears natural following the decline, with gold still retaining upside potential in the medium term, particularly if the Fed confirms its readiness to continue monetary easing.
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