Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: sideways with focus on disputes and the Fed

Gold (XAUUSD) maintains neutral momentum, hovering within the range between 3,350 and 3,435 USD per ounce. The primary support factor remains expectations of Fed policy easing, especially after Jerome Powell’s statements on the premature nature of discussing rate cuts. Heightened interest in gold is also driven by rising geopolitical tensions and persistent uncertainty due to new US trade measures against India, South Korea, and Iran.

On the other hand, the strengthening US dollar and rising US bond yields continue to restrain gold’s upward momentum. The market remains in wait-and-see mode, with investors assessing the likelihood of new tariffs, Fed–White House disagreements, and the progress of negotiations with China.

From a technical perspective, the 3,350 support level remains crucial. As long as prices stay above it, the potential for growth toward 3,440-3,450 remains. An upward breakout is possible if signals of monetary easing or new geopolitical risks emerge.

Let us take a look at what to expect next.

XAUUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Weekly dynamics:

Gold (XAUUSD) ended July with volatility but stayed within the medium-term sideways range of 3,245–3,350 per ounce. Interest in safe-haven assets declined amid strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta and the signing of trade agreements between the US and both the EU and South Korea. Gold was bolstered by expectations of a Fed rate cut and tariff pressure on India, Iran, and Brazil. A weekly low is 3,246, while a high stands at 3,347.

• Key support:

The 3,245 level is the nearest major demand zone. A breakout below it would open the path towards 3,118 and further down to 2,955. Weakening interest in gold is possible if US Treasury yields rise, labour market data strengthens, and the dollar stabilises.

• Key resistance:

The 3,350-3,360 area remains a significant resistance zone. Consolidation above 3,360 on the daily chart would be a technical confirmation of a resumed upward impulse, targeting 3,435 and 3,500.

• Fundamental factors:

Demand for gold remains sensitive to macroeconomic data and geopolitics. The Fed kept rates at 4.5% but gave no clear signal on the timing of potential easing. Markets are now pricing in only 35 basis points of cuts by year-end. Added volatility comes from new US trade actions against India, Iran, and Brazil, as well as expectations around PCE inflation and labour market data.

• General sentiment:

Neutral-to-positive. As long as XAUUSD holds above 3,245, the market retains the potential for recovery. The technical picture suggests consolidation with a local upward bias, especially if US jobs data disappoint and rate cut expectations persist.

• XAUUSD weekly forecast:

The baseline scenario suggests a sideways movement with a bullish tilt. Near-term recovery targets are 3,350 and 3,435. If prices break above 3,360, they could test the 3,500 level. Support levels are located at 3,245 and 3,118. The key catalysts include PCE inflation, the US jobs report, and trade dispute developments.

Gold (XAUUSD) fundamental analysis

By the end of the week, Gold (XAUUSD) quotes climbed above 3,290 USD per ounce, recovering from earlier declines when the metal dropped by over 1% to a four-week low. Support came from concerns around US trade policy and uncertainty over future Fed actions.

US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs: he revoked exemptions for small import batches, raised duties on copper and Brazilian goods, and approved a 15% tariff on South Korean imports and 25% on those from India. Meanwhile, negotiations with New Delhi continue.

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed it was too early to discuss rate cuts and did not specify the possible timing of the changes. Following the meeting, the market adjusted its expectations, now pricing in just 35 basis points of easing by the end of the year.

Additional momentum came from strong US macroeconomic data, with GDP and private sector employment both exceeding forecasts. Investor attention now shifts to inflation reports and labour data for July.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating within the 3,245-3,450 range. After rising in March–April and peaking at 3,500, prices stabilised in a sideways corridor. The current quote stands at 3,298.

Technically, gold is testing the lower boundary of the range. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, signalling weak bullish momentum. The Stochastic is in the oversold zone, although no reversal pattern has yet formed. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating decreasing volatility.

If quotes consolidate below 3,245, the paths toward 3,118 and 2,955 may open. To resume growth, a confident breakout above the 3,400-3,450 resistance area is needed.

XAUUSD trading scenarios

The fundamental backdrop remains mixed. Last week, gold received support from weak US macroeconomic data and dovish comments by Jerome Powell — the market still prices in about 35 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. However, risk appetite increased amid strong corporate earnings and the US-EU trade deal, which dampened demand for safe-haven assets.

Additional pressure comes from rising oil inventories and the dollar stabilising near local highs. In this environment, XAUUSD ended July cautiously near the 3,245 support level.

• Buy scenario:

Long positions are viable on a rebound from the 3,245-3,260 area – the lower boundary of the current range and the middle Bollinger Band. Confirmation would come from a reversal candlestick pattern or a return above 3,300. With a supportive backdrop (weaker dollar, low PCE inflation, rising US unemployment), gold could recover to 3,350 and then to 3,435-3,450.

Opening a long position is also justified in case of weak US labour market data on Friday. In that case, gold could return to the upper boundary of the range near 3,450-3,470, with potential for a breakout to 3,500.

• Sell/short scenario:

A stronger bearish impulse is likely if 3,245 is broken. Consolidation below this level would confirm a downward exit from consolidation, with initial downside targets at 3,118 and then 2,955. This scenario becomes the base case if the dollar remains strong, US Treasury yields rise, and the Fed signals hawkishness.

Selling is preferable amid worsening global sentiment, new trade restrictions, and rising real yields in the US. An additional signal would be an accelerated drop below the lower Bollinger Band.

Conclusion: the market continues to balance between expectations of the Fed easing policy and risk appetite. Until a breakout beyond 3,245-3,450 occurs, gold remains in sideways movement with a local downward tilt.

Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) closed July in a consolidation phase within the 3,245-3,350 USD per ounce range. Investors are evaluating the implications of the Fed’s dovish tone, new US trade measures, and mixed signals from global markets. Despite no rate change, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell offered no clear schedule for easing, limiting gold’s upside potential. Traders now price in just 35 basis points of cuts by year-end, reducing safe-haven appeal.

Support for the metal comes from rising geopolitical risks. The US imposed heavy tariffs on India and South Korea and expanded sanctions on Iran. These moves increased oil market uncertainty and renewed interest in gold as a hedge.

Technically, the market remains in a range-bound expectation mode. A breakout below 3,245 or above 3,360 would signal the start of a new trend. For now, sideways dynamics with moderate volatility dominate.

Amid the current uncertainty, short-term strategies remain relevant: trading rebounds off range boundaries and locking in profits at key levels. Focus remains on inflation reports, US labour market data, and any signs of Fed easing.