Head and Shoulders pattern formation threatens EURUSD bulls
The EURUSD rate continues to strengthen amid pressure on the US dollar and growing expectations of further Fed easing. The rate currently stands at 1.1741. Find out more in our analysis for 30 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Pressure on the US dollar has intensified due to the risk of a federal government shutdown
- The market is awaiting the September US jobs report, which will be released on Friday
- Early signs of labour market slowdown reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve easing
- EURUSD forecast for 30 September 2025: 1.1645
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate has been rising for the third consecutive session. Buyers are currently attempting to break above the key resistance level at 1.1745. Pressure on the US dollar has intensified due to the risk of a federal government shutdown, as the budget approval deadline expires on 1 October. This situation could delay the release of key economic data this week.
The market’s focus now shifts to the September US jobs report, which will be released on Friday and serve as an indicator of labour market conditions. Additionally, investors’ attention will be drawn to job openings data, private sector employment statistics, and the ISM manufacturing PMI.
Early signs of a labour market slowdown reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve easing following last month’s rate cut, providing additional support for euro growth in today’s EURUSD forecast.
EURUSD technical analysis
While the EURUSD rate remains within an upward channel, the current strengthening is capped by the resistance zone near 1.1745. The chart shows the formation of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
Additional pressure on the pair comes from the Stochastic Oscillator signal, where the indicator lines have approached overbought territory and are showing readiness to turn downwards.
Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a bearish scenario with the price breaking below the 1.1705 support level and declining towards 1.1645. Consolidation below 1.1700 would confirm the downtrend and indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
Summary
Fundamental factors support euro growth; however, technical analysis of EURUSD points to a high risk of a bearish scenario with a breakout below the support level and a decline towards 1.1645.