Gold is forming a correction ahead of US data, and in the case of weaker-than-expected results, XAUUSD quotes have every chance to rise towards the 3,400 USD mark. Discover more in our analysis for 12 August 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- US core Consumer Price Index (core CPI): previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.3%
- US CPI: previously at 2.7%, projected at 2.8%
- Current trend: moving upwards
- XAUUSD forecast for 12 August 2025: 3,400
Fundamental analysis
The core CPI reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, excluding energy and food. Today’s XAUUSD fundamental analysis takes into account that the US core CPI may rise to 0.3% from the previous 0.2%. The increase may be modest, but combined with other indicators, the actual data could influence the USD.
The CPI measures changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping to assess purchasing trends and potential stagnation in the economy. A weaker-than-forecast reading typically has a negative impact on the national currency.
The XAUUSD forecast for 12 August 2025 suggests the CPI could rise from the previous value of 2.7%, with expectations at 2.8%. Today’s XAUUSD fundamental analysis indicates that a CPI increase could have a positive effect on the US dollar.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD prices formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, prices are building an upward wave following the signal from the pattern. Considering that XAUUSD quotes have returned within the ascending channel, the uptrend could continue. The current upside target is the 3,400 USD resistance level.
At the same time, today’s XAUUSD technical analysis also considers a second scenario, where prices correct towards 3,335 USD before rising again.
The potential for further gains remains, and XAUUSD quotes may head towards the 3,500 USD mark in the near term.
Summary
Expectations for US statistics have triggered a correction in gold. XAUUSD technical analysis suggests a rebound from the support line and a rise towards 3,400 USD.
