An increase in ADP non-farm employment in the US may push the USDJPY pair higher towards the 145.00 level. Discover more in our analysis for 4 June 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Japan’s services PMI: projected at 50.8, currently at 51.0
- US ADP non-farm employment change: previously at 62 thousand, projected at 111 thousand
- USDJPY forecast for 4 June 2025: 145.00
Fundamental analysis
Japan’s services PMI evaluates performance across sectors such as transport, communication, financial intermediation, business and consumer services, IT, and hospitality services.
Fundamental analysis for 4 June 2025 does not appear optimistic for the Japanese yen. Although the PMI eased to 51.0 from the previous reading, it still exceeded expectations. A value above 50.0 suggests expansion, which should support the yen, but the Japanese currency continues to weaken against the USD.
The ADP non-farm employment change in the US is expected to rise to 111 thousand, according to the forecast for 4 June 2025. Last month’s figure fell significantly, and if today’s actual data disappoints again, the dollar could face pressure. Conversely, a better-than-expected reading may send the USDJPY pair higher towards the 145.00 level.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, the USDJPY price formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart, hovering around 144.00. The pair may now maintain its upward momentum in line with the pattern signal. With the price remaining within a descending channel, the pair has room to reach the 145.00 resistance level.
However, today's USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the price plunges to 143.30 without testing the resistance level.
Summary
An improved PMI in Japan’s services sector fails to support the yen. USDJPY technical analysis points to the potential for an upward move towards 145.00 as part of a corrective wave.
