Political instability in France increases pressure on EURUSD
The EURUSD rate remains under pressure amid political instability in France and uncertainty in the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The rate currently stands at 1.1568. Find more details in our analysis for 10 October 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The Federal Reserve minutes showed that most members expect further rate cuts this year
- Fed Governor Michael Barr emphasised the need for a cautious approach to policy easing
- The Federal Reserve will require more data and updated forecasts to accurately assess risk balance and determine next steps
- EURUSD forecast for 10 October 2025: 1.1700
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate is correcting after four consecutive sessions of decline. Pressure on the euro intensified due to political uncertainty in France, where President Emmanuel Macron is seeking his sixth prime minister in less than two years.
The Fed minutes published on Wednesday showed that most policymakers expect further key rate cuts later this year. However, some officials questioned even the September reduction. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for 28–29 October, and the regulator will likely have to make decisions amid limited data availability, as the US government shutdown has halted the publication of key statistics.
Fed Governor Michael Barr on Thursday stressed the need for a cautious approach to policy easing, noting that new tariffs could create persistent inflationary pressures in the US. The regulator will need more data and updated projections to better assess the balance of risks and determine its next steps.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD rate continues to move within a bearish channel, developing a corrective upward wave. Currently, the price has rebounded from the Moving Average, suggesting continued selling pressure and opening the potential for further decline.
The EURUSD forecast points to a bearish scenario, with a downside target at 1.1495. An additional confirmation comes from the Stochastic Oscillator, which is turning downwards from overbought territory, strengthening the likelihood of a short-term bearish impulse.
A breakout below the lower boundary of the correction channel, with the price consolidating below 1.1545, will confirm the bearish scenario.
Summary
The EURUSD rate remains under pressure amid France’s political instability and the Fed’s cautious stance on future rate cuts. The EURUSD technical analysis confirms ongoing downward pressure; a breakout below 1.1545 could open the way for a decline towards 1.1495.