Triangle on EURUSD: is the market ready for a breakout to 1.1175?

The EURUSD rate is strengthening, with buyers testing the 1.1000 resistance level. Find out more in our analysis for 10 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Investors remain cautious amid potential fallout from US economic policy
• The Fed expects to cut rates by 50 basis points before the end of 2025
• The Stochastic Oscillator signals stronger bullish momentum in the EURUSD pair
• EURUSD forecast for 10 April 2025: 1.1175

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising after yesterday’s correction. Earlier, the US dollar found some support following President Trump’s announcement of a pause in mutual tariffs for countries that have not issued retaliatory measures. However, investors remain cautious about the potential implications of US economic policy, which may support the bullish EURUSD outlook for today.

According to the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, Fed officials expect inflation to accelerate in 2025 due to elevated tariffs, although they acknowledged high uncertainty regarding the scale and duration of these effects. The Federal Reserve still projects a 50-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year despite deteriorating economic growth expectations.

Now, market focus shifts to tomorrow’s US inflation data, which may provide additional signals about the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

EURUSD technical analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating within a Triangle pattern. Despite yesterday’s decline, the pair remains within an uptrend, as confirmed by the Moving Averages. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a bullish breakout above the Triangle’s upper boundary, targeting 1.1175.

The Stochastic Oscillator signals stronger upward momentum, with its readings rebounding from the support level and the %K and %D lines intersecting upwards. A breakout above the Triangle’s upper boundary will confirm this scenario, with the price consolidating above 1.1065.

Summary

The fundamental background supports the current EURUSD growth as markets price in Fed rate cuts amid tariff uncertainty and inflation expectations. The EURUSD technical analysis highlights the potential for further upward movement towards 1.1175, provided the pair breaks above the Triangle’s upper boundary.