Trump scares with tariffs, EURUSD is preparing a surprise

EURUSD may continue rising towards resistance at 1.1780. Details – in our analysis for 11 July 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• France Consumer Price Index (CPI): previous value -0.1%, forecasted - 0.3%
• Trump threatens with tariffs
• EURUSD forecast for 11 July 2025: 1.1780

Fundamental analysis

The fundamental analysis for 7 July 2025 considers that the US President may send a letter to the European Union regarding the introduction of trade tariffs from 1 August 2025. Investors are waiting and wondering at what stage negotiations stand. Judging by Trump’s tone, talks are not going smoothly, and the EU risks receiving maximum tariff rates.

Not only the eurozone may suffer from protective tariffs but also several other US import partners; for example, Canada has already been sent a letter notifying it of 35% tariffs on imported goods.

Amid Trump’s attempts to support US manufacturers, the US dollar may lose ground, and the forecast for EURUSD today favours the euro. EURUSD may continue its upward trend after a pullback.

France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping assess purchasing trends and economic stagnation. If the figure comes out above forecast, it will have a positive impact on the euro.

The forecast for EURUSD on 11 July 2025 suggests that the index may rise to 0.3%, from the previous value of -0.1%. A significant deviation between expectations and actual results may affect EURUSD.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EURUSD formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, it may continue its upward wave as the signal plays out. Given that prices remain within an upward channel, further growth towards the nearest resistance at 1.1780 is possible. A breakout above this resistance will open prospects for continued upward movement.

However, a correction of EURUSD to 1.1625 should not be ruled out, with strengthening upward dynamics after the pullback.

Summary

US trade tariffs, combined with EURUSD technical analysis, suggest considering a rise in quotes towards 1.1780.