The EURUSD pair faces selling pressure, with quotes declining after rebounding from the 1.1385 resistance level. Find more details in our analysis for 30 May 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The US economy contracted by 0.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025
- The US CEO Confidence Index fell in Q2 2025 to its all-time low
- EURUSD forecast for 30 May 2025: 1.1635
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction following a 1.5% gain in the previous session. Traders are closely watching the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which may offer early signs of whether elevated tariffs are driving inflation, potentially shaping the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision.
The US economy contracted by 0.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a 2.4% increase in Q4 2024, marking the first contraction in three years. Additionally, the US CEO Confidence Index dropped to 34 points in Q2 2025, reaching its lowest level since late 2022.
This combination of weak macroeconomic indicators adds to pressure on the US dollar and could support further EURUSD growth if today’s inflation data proves neutral or soft.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD rate remains within an ascending channel. Buyers have secured a position above the Moving Averages, indicating sustained bullish momentum, although the pair has yet to break out of the corrective range. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a potential climb towards 1.1635.
The Stochastic Oscillator points to continued upward strength, with the indicator lines emerging from oversold territory.
A breakout above the upper boundary of the corrective channel, with consolidation above 1.1385, would strengthen the bullish outlook.
Summary
Weak US macroeconomic data continues to weigh on the US dollar, setting the stage for further EURUSD gains, with a target at 1.1385, if inflation data comes in neutral or soft.
